Before next week’s PGA TOUR Championship at East Lake, the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings will compete at Caves Valley Golf Club (par 70, 7,601 yards, bentgrass greens) in Owings Mills, Maryland for the BMW Championship. Caves Valley also hosted the 2021 BMW Championship, which was won by Patrick Cantlay (-27). There won’t be a cut this week and after the BMW Championship, the top-30 players in the FedEx Cup standings will advance to the PGA TOUR Championship next week.
Below, I have featured two of my favorite longshot outright bets to win the BMW Championship on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Andrew Novak (+7500)
Novak won the team-based Zurich Classic with Ben Griffin as his partner in April, and Novak has been very close to securing his first PGA TOUR win as an individual many times this season. Some of Novak’s close calls include a third place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, a T3 at the Valero Texas Open, a runner-up at the RBC Heritage and most recently, a T6 at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. During this start, Novak carded a 6-under 64 in the second round, and he led the world-class field in par five efficiency at TPC Southwind.
Novak’s success at the FedEx St. Jude Championship was a continuation of a common trend for the 30-year-old, in that he loves competing at events that don’t feature a cut. In Novak’s five starts at no-cut tournaments this season, he has finished T17th or better four times.
Novak ranks sixth among this field in strokes gained per round at no-cut events this season. He is worth a flier this week at this long +7500 price.
Sam Stevens (+10000)
Stevens has recorded eight top-25 finishes in 25 solo starts this season, and Caves Valley being home to bentgrass greens is terrific news for the 29-year-old. Stevens has contended twice in the last few months, finishing third at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson in May and runner-up at the 3M Open last month, both of which are tournaments that are held at courses that feature bentgrass putting surfaces.
Among this week’s stacked field, Stevens ranks seventh in strokes gained per round at venues with bentgrass greens this season. The Oklahoma State University product’s ball striking has been up-and-down recently — he ranks 30th in SGT2G when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. That said, if Stevens can find some life in that department to pair with his expertise as a bentgrass putter, he could thrive at Caves Valley this week.
