For the second of three events for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the PGA TOUR is hosting the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club (par 70, 7,601 yards, bentgrass greens) in Owings Mills, Maryland. This Tom Fazio designed course also hosted the 2021 BMW Championship that was won by Patrick Cantlay (-27). The top-50 players in the FedEx Cup standings are competing this week, and there will be no cut. Following the BMW Championship, the top-30 players in the standings will advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake next week.
Below, I have featured some finishing position bets to consider for the BMW Championship.
Patrick Cantlay for a top-10 finish including ties (+150)
Cantlay won the 2021 BMW Championship at Caves Valley and that week, he gained a career-best 14.6 strokes on the bentgrass greens of this venue, which is a true testament to his love for this type of putting surface. During his career, Cantlay has notoriously played his best golf at venues that feature bentgrass greens, as six of his eight PGA TOUR wins have come at tracks that are home to this type of green.
Cantlay ranks sixth in strokes gained per round when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at courses with bentgrass putting surfaces. The 33-year-old is fresh off a T9 at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, marking his fourth top-10 finish of the season.
Cantlay gained strokes on approach and with his putter at TPC Southwind, and he should have one of his best performances of the season in his return to Caves Valley this week.
Denny McCarthy for a top-20 finish including ties (+130)
Outside of missing the cut at both the Genesis Scottish Open and the Open Championship overseas, McCarthy hasn’t missed a cut this season, and he has finished inside the top-20 in 10 of his 21 starts. The veteran finished T8th at Quail Hollow for the PGA Championship in May, which is a Tom Fazio designed venue, just like this week’s Caves Valley.
McCarthy ranks sixth in SGP this season. He is in compelling form, as the 32-year-old has collectively gained strokes on approach and with his putter at back-to-back events. Currently, McCarthy is outside the line for next week’s TOUR Championship, sitting 38th in the FedEx Cup standings.
McCarthy will need to post a high finish at the BMW Championship this week in order to advance to the TOUR Championship and while he didn’t compete at Caves Valley in 2021, McCarthy grew up only about an hour south of the Fazio creation in Rockville, Maryland. Back in June, McCarthy told WMAR2News’ Xavier Wherry “it would mean a lot to be here and play in front of family and friends” when asked about Caves Valley hosting the BMW Championship. McCarthy got his wish and qualified for this playoff event, and the highly motivated Maryland native is a great bet to finish inside the top-20 at this +130 price.
