The Week 1 college football schedule gives us no breaks, as we get a throwback top-10 matchup between Notre Dame and Miami on Sunday night of Labor Day Weekend. It’ll be a true home game for the Hurricanes down at Hard Rock Stadium, but expect the Irish fans to make the trip down to where they won last season’s Orange Bowl — which sent them to the National Championship.
We’ve seen some movement on the spread going in both directions since this game came on the board months back, but we recently saw a massive move on the total. This one opened up at 54.5, and remained there until this week. But the total has since been pounded to the under, with 59% of the bets for 99% of the handle at DK Sportsbook being bet that way (as of August 12). That action moved the total down to 50.5. I was fortunate enough to play this one back in July, but still lean to the under at 50.5 — although I’m going to wait and see if we can officially play a better number closer to kickoff.
Notre Dame got off to a grinder of a start last season in a Week 1 night game on the road, defeating Texas A&M by a score of 23-13. I’m expecting to see something similar in this situation. This is a high-level game to start off the season for both teams, not to mention competing in the summer humidity down in Miami. While the Canes made the flashy addition of Carson Beck at quarterback, don’t expect him produce at the level that Cam Ward did. Don’t be surprised if both defenses are well ahead of the offenses when these teams meet on the last day of August.
Beck will be playing his first game since tearing his UCL in the SEC Championship against Texas. While he’s protected by one of the nation’s top offensive lines, it may take some time to gel with the skill position players. Miami lost its starting running back and top-six pass-catchers off the 2024 roster. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes return eight starters on defense, remaining strong on the defensive line. Maybe more importantly for Miami’s season-long outlook, it got much deeper in the secondary, which was a weakness last season.
However, the Irish are still up in the air when it comes to who their quarterback will be, so Miami’s secondary might not play as large of a role in this one. Notre Dame’s lack of star power at quarterback should lead to less explosive plays through the air. ND boasts a strong offensive line, per usual, and returns its top-two rushers in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Expect the Irish to have a focus on pounding the rock early and often. While Notre Dame should chew up some clock on offense, I expect it to be able to get stops on defense. Seven starters return to a defense that helped the Irish to the National Championship Game last season, and they remain deep at all levels.
Simply put, the passing game could be lacking in this one. If both teams play to their strengths, we’ll see plenty of the ground game, and some aggressive defense. I’m in complete agreement with the move to the under.
CFB Lean: UNDER 50.5 (-108)
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