On Tuesday afternoon, a series at Great American Ball Park continues as the Cincinnati Reds (62-58) try to get back in the win column against the Philadelphia Phillies (69-49). Both of these teams have real postseason aspirations, and after yesterday’s opener ended with a 4-1 Philly win, this matchup presents a real test for the home team.
Here’s a Reds vs. Phillies prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday evening.
Reds vs. Phillies prediction, preview
The Reds enter this matchup 5-5 across their last 10 contests and 12-11 since the All-Star Game nearly a month ago. They’ve hung around in third place among NL Central teams and remain just two games shy of a Wild Card spot, so every contest counts as they compete with the St. Louis Cardinals, a division rival trailing just one game behind.
Cincinnati’s offense does lack the high-scoring upside of many playoff contenders, and they’ve scored just 99 runs (17th-most) in 23 games since the ASG. Over that span, their .681 team OPS ranks just 27th thanks to a low slugging percentage, but they’re 13th in batting average at .246. While they’re reaching base at a respectable .320 rate, the Reds don’t have a ton of pop in the lineup and are struggling to turn extra bases — and their 17 home runs rank second-to-last among all teams.
The Phillies, meanwhile, sit among the MLB’s best teams and have gone 14-8 since the ASG. They’ve won eight of their last 10 games so Philly brings momentum into this outing, especially after downing this Reds squad last night on the road. This offense performs like polar opposites at the plate with 117 runs, the fifth-most of any team since the break. Their power-hitting ability stands out with 40 homers, the second-best mark in baseball, while their .252 average ranks ninth and their .794 OPS falls fourth among all franchises.
Not only do the Phillies light up the scoreboard, but their pitching also stands out. They boast a 3.68 ERA since the ASG, sixth-best of any squad, giving them an advantage on the mound over Cincy. Tonight, Philadelphia lefty Ranger Suarez (2.94 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 98 SO) gets the start against Reds right-hander Brady Singer (4.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 113 SO).
Reds vs. Phillies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as -157 road favorites on the Moneyline tonight while the Reds hold +129 ML odds. The run total sits at a lofty 9.5, tied for second-highest on tonight’s slate.
These two offenses find themselves in very different positions. Philadelphia is firing on all cylinders with plenty of hot bats, especially power-hitter Kyle Schwarber with his four homers in his last seven games and 42 overall on the season. There’s plenty of star power in the batting order, but Cincinnati can’t exactly say the same and they’re struggling to drive the ball in the same fashion. That’s reason enough for me to feel confident in the Phillies tonight, but some underlying numbers from the pitchers only reinforce my thoughts on tonight’s contest.
Suarez’s box-score stats look quite good on the season, and while he’s not quite in the elite tier of hurlers, his underlying metrics grade out very well. He ranks in the 80th percentile or better in all the run value metrics as well as expected ERA, chase percentage, walk percentage, and barrel percentage — plus, he boasts 99th-percentile scores in average exit velocity (84.9 mph) and hard-hit percentage (28.9%).
Those marks are a night-and-day difference in comparison to Singer’s. Cincinnati’s starter grades out above the 48th percentile in just one advanced metric on his savant profile, and he posts a 16th-percentile average exit velo (90.6 mph) and 43rd-percentile hard-hit percentage (41.4%). He also allows plenty of barrels and has negative scores in each of the run value metrics. While Singer’s 1.06 HR/9 mark looks good, he’s still vulnerable in this matchup against a team that can hit with the best of them. Phillies -1.5 feels right.
Best bet: PHI Phillies -1.5 (+101)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
