If you’re hunting for the best MLB picks and player props August 11, 2025, has to offer, you’re in the right place. This slate features the Red Sox against the return of Cristian Javier, Andrew Vaughn looking to continue his hot hitting, and the Cardinals in an attractive matchup against Chase Dollander. Let’s break down my favorite MLB bets for Friday night.
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MLB Picks and Player Props August 11, 2025
Boston Red Sox Team Total over 4.5 runs (+100) vs. Houston Astros
The Astros rotation will welcome back Cristian Javier, who is set to make his first major league start in over 14 months. The last time we saw Javier on a big-league mound was May 21, 2024, against the Angels. Since then, he has been recovering from Tommy John surgery.
However, his return tonight may not inspire much confidence among Astros fans. Javier struggled during his minor league rehab assignments, making five appearances in total. Over 14 innings, he posted a 5.14 ERA, a 4.89 FIP, and an identical 9.6 K/9 and BB/9 — a concerning combination.
Given the circumstances, it’s likely this will be a short outing for Javier regardless of performance, placing much of the workload on the bullpen. While Houston’s bullpen has respectable surface-level stats, their 4.98 FIP ranks among the highest in the league for the month of August.
With that in mind, I expect the Red Sox to have plenty of success at the plate tonight.
Andrew Vaughn 2+ total bases (+100) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Who would’ve thought that all Vaughn needed to revitalize his career was to get the hell out of Chicago? Since being traded to the Brewers, Vaughn is slashing .348/.412/.629 with a .438 wOBA, a 188 wRC+, seven home runs, and 28 RBI. To say he’s flipped the script since the trade would be an understatement.
He’ll look to keep that hot streak going tonight against Andrew Heaney and the Pirates. Heaney’s primary pitch, the four-seam fastball, has been getting crushed — opposing hitters have posted a .457 wOBA and a .389 ISO against it. That bodes well for Vaughn, who’s also fared well against left-handed four-seamers, with a .440 wOBA and a .167 ISO.
Chase Dollander over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Dollander is being called up to start tonight for the Rockies. We saw plenty of him in the first half of the season, and he was often a pitcher to target. He’s made 15 starts this year, allowing at least three earned runs in nine of them.
His time in the minors hasn’t been much better — he holds a 7.04 ERA over 15.1 innings. When he’s been in the majors, he’s relied heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it about 50% of the time — a pitch the Cardinals are equipped to handle.
Tonight’s projected lineup has a combined .332 wOBA and a .162 ISO against four-seamers, giving them a favorable matchup.
Steve Buchanan’s Monday Picks Parlay
Good luck with your MLB picks and player props for August 11, 2025!
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