The Yankees and Astros are facing off in New York on Sunday in the rubber game of a three-game set. Below, I break down my prediction and pick for the game.
Max Fried will be starting for the Yankees, while Jason Alexander will take the mound for the Astros .
Yankees vs. Astros prediction, preview
Fried was one of the Yankees’ marquee free-agent signings this past winter following Juan Soto’s departure to the Mets. Despite a few recent bumps, he’s been worth every penny, posting a 12-4 record with a 2.78 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 139 innings this season.
I mentioned his recent struggles because, after a red-hot start to the season, Fried has come back down to earth. He’s allowed four or more runs in five of his past six outings—though that drops to three of five if you’re only counting earned runs. Still, the contrast is clear: Fried gave up four or more runs just once in his first 17 starts.
As for Alexander, he’ll be making just his fifth start of the season after beginning the year in the bullpen. The 32-year-old has struggled overall, posting a 5.97 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 31.2 innings. However, he’s coming off his best outing of the year—a six-inning, three-hit shutout performance against the Marlins in which he struck out six and picked up his second win of the season.
Yankees vs. Astros pick, best bet
The Yankees picked up a much-needed win on Saturday, thanks to Trent Grisham’s go-ahead home run in the eighth inning to break a 4–4 tie. Still, something feels off with this team. Some of that can be pinned on Aaron Boone’s questionable bullpen management, but it also doesn’t help that Aaron Judge is hitting just .189 with a .662 OPS in 11 games since the All-Star break. He simply hasn’t looked right since returning from his elbow injury.
That said, I don’t trust Jason Alexander to keep shutting down big-league lineups—especially on the road. And as we’ve already covered, Fried hasn’t exactly been sharp lately either. With both starters showing signs of vulnerability and the potential for runs on both sides, this sets up well for a high-scoring affair. Give me the over in this one.