All 30 MLB teams are in action across today’s Sunday slate, leaving plenty of options in the home run prop market. As a reminder, these types of prop bets are long shots by nature in the same way it is a swing for the fence for the players on the field. Even the best home run hitters are not likely to hit a home run in any individual game. However, there are some indicators to consider that can help give you an edge.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are three home run props for Sunday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Cal Raleigh to record 1+ home runs (+220)
The MLB home run leader is a great place to start, with Cal Raleigh already launching 44 home runs over the fence this season. He ranks in the 95th percentile in expected slugging percentage, 90th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 88th percentile in average exit velocity so far this season.
This is a friendly matchup for the Mariners star as Adrian Houser will be on the mound for the Rays. Houser is making just his second start of the season for the Rays and 13th all year. In his Tampa Bay debut, Houser allowed 11 hits and five earned runs, with one of these being a home run. Houser ranks in the 14th percentile or worse in expected batting average, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
Raleigh has faced Houser just twice in his career, with one hit tallied. He enters with a home run notched in both games thus far this series, and there is a case that this is his most friendly pitching matchup. Look for the home run king to remain hot and extend this streak to three games.
Junior Caminero to record 1+ home runs (+380)
On the other side of this matchup, Junior Caminero is in a great spot to add to his home run total. It has been a breakout season for the 22-year-old, who notched his first All-Star appearance and leads the team with 32 home runs. Caminero has tallied four home runs in his past three games.
This is a friendly matchup against the Mariners with Bryan Woo on the mound. While Woo is posting a 3.02 ERA on the season overall, he has allowed 21 total home runs and has not escaped any of his past five starts without giving up an earned run. Woo has allowed seven home runs across his past four starts.
Caminero is posting reverse splits and has been better against right-handed pitching this year. He is slashing .267/.307/.527 against right-handers compared to .236/.271/.512 against lefties. 22 of his 32 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers. With Woo trending in the wrong direction and Caminero riding a hot streak, look for the Rays’ star to put another home run over the fence today.
Seiya Suzuki to record 1+ home run (+370)
In the lone late matchup tonight, the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals will face off. Sonny Gray will be on the mound for the Cardinals and enters with a 4.21 ERA with 129 hits and 141 strikeouts across his first 128.1 innings pitched. He is coming off a strong start against the Dodgers in his previous game pitched in which he held the intimidating lineup to one earned run across seven innings pitched. However, Gray was lit up for 17 earned runs in just 13.1 innings pitched in his previous three starts.
Seiya Suzuki has fared well against Gray in their careers. Across 10 plate appearances, Suzuki is posting a .667 slugging percentage with one home run tallied. He also has four hits over his past three games, posting a .800 slugging percentage and a .1262 OPS across this stretch. One of these four hits was a home run.
Suzuki is tied with Pete Crow-Armstrong for the most home runs on the Cubs with 27 on the year. 18 of his 27 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. With a solid track record against Gray and a strong stretch of recent play, look for Suzuki to add to his home run total tonight.
