In the final game of today’s five-game WNBA slate, the Las Vegas Aces will host the Connecticut Sun. This will mark the fourth matchup between these two teams this season, with the Aces pulling out a victory in all three of the previous games by a combined margin of 69 points. They last played on July 6th.
The Aces enter tonight as 11.5-point favorites and -750 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun holds +525 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 167.
Sun at Aces preview
It has been a nightmare season for the Sun, who hold the WNBA’s worst record at 5-24 on the year. Offensively, they rank dead last in scoring at 75.4 points per game. They are 13th in three-point percentage, 12th in field goal percentage, 13th in offensive rating, 12th in assist/turnover ratio, and 13th in assists. Defensively, they rank 12th in opponents’ points per game, 13th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 11th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and last in defensive rating.
Tina Charles headlines the scoring effort with 16.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game. Marina Mabrey is the lone other member of the team to average in double figures, adding 14.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. Bria Hartley leads the active roster in three-point percentage at 37.6% and adds 9.7 points and 3.1 assists. Anneesah Morrow also pitches in 7.1 points and 5.7 rebounds per game.
The Las Vegas Aces enter with a 17-14 record and enter on a three-game winning streak. They rank eighth in the WNBA in scoring at 81.6 points per game and seventh in offensive rating. Las Vegas ranks seventh in field goal percentage and 10th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Aces are limiting opponents to 82.8 points per game, which ranks ninth in the league. They rank ninth in defensive rating, ninth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and eighth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
While she has not played quite to her sky-high standard, A’ja Wilson still headlines the production for the Aces with 21.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. Jackie Young provides a nice compliment at the guard position, adding 16.9 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game. Jewell Lloyd leads the team in three-point percentage at 37.5% and averages 11.4 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. Chelsea Gray is the lone other member of the Aces to average in double figures with 11.1 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per contest. NaLyssa Smith has also proven to be an X-Factor and has been injected into the starting lineup of late. Smith is averaging 7.9 points and 6.1 rebounds on the season.
Suns at Aces prediction, pick
The Aces have underwhelmed relative to expectation this year, but are still comfortably better than the Sun. Connecticut is just limping to the finish line this year and is riding a three-game losing streak in which they have dropped the past two by double digits. All three of the matchups between these two teams have been dominant victories by 16+ points or greater in favor of Las Vegas.
Connecticut has yet to crack 70 points against the Aces this year, including being held to 58 points in one of the matchups. In fact, two of their four lowest-scoring games this season have come against Las Vegas. Despite this, the Sun’s team total is set at 77.5 for the matchup.
While my lean is toward the Aces taking care of business and covering the -11.5, my favorite bet is for the Sun to fall short of the 77.5 team total. They have only tallied more than this in 13 of the 29 games overall and fallen short in each previous matchup between these two sides. While the Aces still have some to prove for their top-end level of competition, they have done a decent job beating up on the teams they are supposed to, especially of late. Expect the Sun to struggle to generate any semblance of consistent offense and be held below 77.5 points for the fourth straight matchup against the Aces.
