The Reds return home following a seven-game road trip. They went 4-3, including a 14-8 victory on Sunday against the Pirates.
Between that and the Mets’ loss, the Reds inch closer to the third Wild Card spot. Up next, however, is a series against the Phillies.
Cincinnati is a -126 moneyline favorite, and Philadelphia is +104 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 9.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Monday’s Reds vs. Phillies matchup.
Reds vs. Phillies prediction
While the Reds are inching closer to a Wild Card spot, the Phillies are extending their NL East lead. That said, they’re not favored on the road in the series opener.
The Phillies are starting Taijuan Walker, who is a quality starter. He’s not the best in their rotation, but he has a 3.53 ERA through 79 innings. His last outing was six shutout innings against the Orioles, but the three times prior he allowed at least two earned runs.
It’s not bad, but it means the Phillies offense will need to provide support. The team ranks in the top 10 for runs per game this season, so that shouldn’t be a problem. That said, the Reds are starting Andrew Abbott.
He has a 2.34 ERA through 115.1 innings in his third major league season. This is definitely his best year yet, but his first two years were good, too. Abbott has proven to be a capable arm in Cincinnati’s bullpen, but he’ll have a major challenge against the Phillies’ offense.
As for the Reds’ offense, they’ve been fairly quiet with the exception of Sunday’s win against the Pirates. Was Sunday a sign that the offense woke up, or was that just an anomaly?
Reds vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Not only have the Reds been playing low-scoring games, but the Phillies have, too. There are a couple outliers, of course, but the offenses haven’t been as potent each game.
That trend should continue in Monday’s series opener with two quality pitchers on the mound. The over/under is set at 9.5, which is a bit steep for the way these teams have played.