At 7:15 p.m. EST on Saturday evening, the MLB slate heads down to the Lone Star State for a game between a couple of playoff hopefuls. The Texas Rangers (60-57) face off against the Philadelphia Phillies (66-49) in game two of a series which began with a massive blowout in the visitors’ favor last night.
Here’s a Rangers vs. Phillies prediction and pick for Saturday’s outing.
Rangers vs. Phillies prediction, preview
The Rangers experienced their fair share of problems over the first half of the season but at long last showed signs of life just before the All-Star Game. Since returning from the break, they’re 12-8 and finally pushed above the .500 mark. Their offense has cooled down considerably at 18th in scoring with a .677 OPS over that span — however, they showed the ability to put up runs over the first part of this stretch and the pitching has been elite in carrying the load when the bats falter.
The visiting Phillies see far more consistent production on the scoreboard. They sit tied for third in OPS at .816 with the fifth-most runs since the ASG, and they just keep clobbering home runs with an MLB-high 38 in 19 games. Their .320 OBP ranks a respectable 12th as well. Really, Philly should probably have a better record since the break since they’re just 11-8, but they’re 6-10 and have some momentum with four wins in their last five games.
The pitching matchup does look quite lopsided. The Rangers trot out Jacob deGrom (2.80 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 135 SO) against Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo (4.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 147 SO).
Rangers vs. Phillies pick, best bet
The Rangers enter as -137 favorites on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Phillies are listed with +112 odds to win outright with a low run total of 7.5.
Luzardo excels at striking batters out and gets a positive matchup against a Texas lineup tied for the fifth-most Ks since the ASG. While his arm comes nowhere near the same stratosphere as deGrom’s, who ranks sixth in WHIP and 12th in ERA among qualified pitchers, the Philadelphia offense does bring plenty of pop to the plate and the Rangers’ starter allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts. This mini-slump looks like something to capitalize on.
The Phillies’ plate process as of late looks better than the Rangers’, so while deGrom typically gets his strikeouts, he may not tally as many as usual tonight. Luzardo also excels at sitting batters down on strikes more than limiting runs, especially as he grades out 77th-percentile or better in chase, whiff, and strikeout percentage. Against a Texas team that’s struck out more than most lineups since the ASG, targeting Luzardo in the race to three strikeouts makes some sense at plus odds.
Best bet: Jesus Luzardo race to three strikeouts (+145)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
