After a 10-2 blowout last night, the San Diego Padres (64-52) look for revenge against the Boston Red Sox (65-52) at Petco Park on Saturday night. There’s star power aplenty in this matchup and a couple of quality arms dueling on the mound, so this rematch should provide some quality baseball on the late slate .
Here’s a Padres vs. Red Sox prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday night.
Padres vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
After last night’s loss, San Diego sits 12-8 since the All-Star Game with Boston pulling ahead in terms of winning percentage at 12-7. The Red Sox did improve to 8-2 across their last 10 contests and enter as one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last week-plus.
These teams sit ninth and 10th in runs scored since the ASG with 96 for the Sox and 85 for the Friars, so both lineups have largely played well over that span. The Padres .747 OPS ranks 12th while the Red Sox are 15th with a .734 mark in the same category, but there’s a sizable difference between San Diego’s .272 average and Boston’s .245 mark. These two sides are drawing walks at a similar rate, but one area where the Padres see an edge is in the strikeout column — they’ve gone down on strikes the third-fewest times of any MLB team over the same sample.
Tonight’s matchup on the mound pits San Diego’s Michael King (2.59 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 64 SO) against Boston’s Lucas Giolito (3.57 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 81 SO). King hasn’t pitched in an MLB contest since May due to a thoracic nerve issue in his right shoulder, so this contest does mark his first start in almost three months. As such, he may be on a pitch count here.
Padres vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
The Padres enter Saturday’s game as -139 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook while the Red Sox hold +114 odds to win. The run total for this one sits at just 7.5.
Last night’s blowout saw Boston’s bats produce 10 runs on 10 hits, including multi-hit efforts from three batters and a homer from two. San Diego’s own order struggled with six knocks on the night, producing just two runs in the bottom of the eighth.
There are a couple of quality arms facing off on Saturday, but how King fares in his return may end up a bit shaky after he allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings in his lone rehab start. I don’t think he comes back in peak form, especially in a matchup against a quality offense. Coupled with the Padres’ general success at the plate since the ASG, this feels like a situation where the over holds some real appeal, especially since it’s tied for the lowest mark on the entire MLB slate.
Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-118)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
