Former title challenger Steve Erceg is taking on Ode Osbourne in the co-main event of this week’s UFC Fight Night. Erceg stayed on the card after his first two opponents (Alex Perez and Hyun Sung Park) withdrew. Perez suffered an injury while Park stepped up on short notice to face Tatusro Taira last week.
Here is my best bet for Erceg vs. Osbourne at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.
Steve Erceg To Win By Decision (+200)
Although Erceg is coming off three straight losses, that doesn’t tell the whole story. He has faced a former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion, a former title challenger, and the current 125-pound king. Now, he takes a big step down in competition to face Osbourne.
Erceg’s last win came against Matt Schnell in March 2024. Even though eight of his 12 victories have come via finish, two of his three UFC wins have come by decision. Erceg is a massive -575 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, so it is better to back him to win by decision at +200.
Also, four of Erceg’s six UFC fights have ended by decision. Even though things haven’t gone his way lately, he is still a better striker than Osbourne. Erceg averages 1.25 more significant trades per minute while being six percent more efficient than Osbourne.