In February, Jean Matsumoto suffered his first career loss to Rob Font as he was on a 16-fight win streak. Now, he has a chance to bounce back against Miles Johns in a three-round bantamweight bout. Johns is also coming off a loss and is 3-1-1 in his last five contests.
Here is my best bet for Johns vs. Matsumoto at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.
Jean Matsumoto To Win By Decision (-120)
At 25 years old, Matsumoto will make the 18th walk of his MMA career. Of his 16 career wins, nine have come by submission or knockout. But four of his previous six wins have been by decision. Since Matsumoto is a -258 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, the better value play is to get him to win by decision at -120.
Johns has more UFC experience than Matsumoto does, as he has been in the promotion since 2019. Since Matsumoto is coming off a defeat, he will need to have a smarter game plan to get back on track against Johns. Although Johns is a solid veteran, when Matsumoto is at his best, he has a much more versatile and advanced skill set.
In this matchup, Johns is taller by one inch, but both fighters have a 68″ standing reach. Even though Johns has an elite 81 percent takedown defense, Matusomoto averages 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 47 percent rate. With this fight being close on paper and both fighters coming off a loss, it seems like the best play is to get Matsumoto to win by decision.
