The dog days of summer are winding to a close as football season makes its return for Week 1 of NFL Preseason action. The first handful of games are in the books, but Saturday brings a whole new slate of eight games on the gridiron throughout the day.
At 4 p.m. EST, a couple of playoff contenders take the field for the first time as the Minnesota Vikings host the Houston Texans at U.S. Bank Stadium. While the starters certainly won’t play very much, this contest gives us the first look at a couple of notable names as they make much-anticipated debuts.
Here’s a prediction and pick for Saturday’s Vikings vs. Texans matinee.
Vikings vs. Texans prediction, preview
The home-team Vikings turned heads last season as head coach Kevin O’Connell turned a castaway Sam Darnold into a quality quarterback who led the team to a 14-3 record and an NFL Playoffs appearance. Darnold ultimately turned into a pumpkin under the bright lights, causing Minnesota to let the signal-caller walk and bring 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy to the forefront as the new starter. His likely-limited time on the field takes the forefront of this matchup as fans get their first glimpse of what the former national champion brings to the table at the NFL level.
He’ll operate without All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson, who remains sidelined with a hamstring injury suffered in training camp. However, McCarthy can still throw passes to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson in an offense called by a top-tier staff, though the Texans’ defense could prove problematic for as long as the first-stringers stay on the field.
Houston’s NFL franchise went 10-7 last season in DeMeco Ryans’ second year at the helm as head coach. They’re coming off their second consecutive AFC South title and have a bitter taste in their mouth after an exit in the Divisional Round to the Kansas City Chiefs. They probably won’t key in on that intensity to begin the preseason, but it’s easy to see how deep the Texans are at most position groups.
Whether quarterback C.J. Stroud takes any snaps under center still remains up in the air, but a couple of players to watch on offense are Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. This pair of wideouts were teammates at Iowa State and were both drafted by the Texans back in April. Both possess plenty of talent and while Higgins will get on the field plenty during the regular season, Noel can potentially earn some snaps with a solid performance. The bigger story, though, is how Houston’s revamped offensive line fares after major personnel changes.
Vikings vs. Texans pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the home-team Vikings as three-point favorites with -170 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Texans are listed at +142 to win outright with the game total set at 37.5 points, a middle-of-the-road projection compared to other contests on this slate.
Betting on preseason opens up a lot more random outcomes than during the regular season due to the nature of these rosters. In the vast majority of cases, the starters see very little action and only take the field for one or two series, at least through the first game or two of the preseason schedule. Even if they do, they may take it easy to avoid injury and leave the heavy lifting to players lower on the depth chart who are fighting for roster spots.
However, some of that randomness does open up betting opportunities. In each of the first four NFL Preseason games played so far this year, the teams combined to score 40 or more points. Sloppy play from players deeper on the depth chart can sometimes create big plays for chunk gains and long touchdowns, so targeting the over feels like a legitimate option in this contest. Both of these squads have quality defenses, but I’m banking on the high-scoring trend to continue in this afternoon matchup.
