As we head into the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the tournament remains wide open. Tommy Fleetwood had an opportunity to seize control on Saturday, but a modest one-under 69 left him at 14-under-par—keeping the leaderboard tight and the door open for a myriad of golfers.
Chief among those ready to capitalize is none other than Scottie Scheffler, who surged into striking distance with a pristine five-under 65 on moving day. Now just two shots off the lead at 12-under, Scheffler looms large as the most formidable threat heading into Sunday.
In between Fleetwood and Scheffler is Justin Rose, who sits at 13-under and just one shot back. J.J. Spaun and Andrew Novak are both at 11-under and well within striking distance as well. With a crowded leaderboard and plenty of firepower near the top, we’re in store for a thrilling finish on Sunday.
Below I detail my two favorite bets for Sunday’s final round.
Scottie Scheffler to win +175
It might feel like low-hanging fruit, but I can’t help myself — anytime Scottie Scheffler is within a few shots of the lead heading into Sunday and you can still get plus-money on him, that’s a gift. The World No. 1 ranks just 11th in the field this week in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, largely due to an uncharacteristically poor performance around the greens, where he’s lost a combined 1.58 strokes over his last two rounds.
What makes it all the more terrifying is that Scheffler is just two back despite not putting a complete round together yet. He ranks only 18th in the field this week in Strokes Gained: Approach and still hasn’t found his usual rhythm. It just feels like that nuclear round is coming—and unfortunately for Fleetwood, it might come at his expense. As much as you hate to say it, he’s developed a reputation for falling short in exactly these kinds of moments.
If Scheffler starts Sunday with a couple of birdies and catches Fleetwood before he even tees off, he could run away with the tournament.
Patrick Cantlay to finish Top 10 +125
This would have been an even better bet before Saturday’s round, when Cantlay fired a four-under 66 to climb into a tie for 10th, but +125 still looks like solid value. Cantlay’s irons have been dialed in all week, ranking third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and on Saturday he finally found his putter, gaining 1.75 strokes on the greens—his first positive day with the flatstick all week.
Much like Scheffler, Cantlay has struggled around the greens this week, but with one of the PGA TOUR’s best short games, that’s unlikely to continue on Sunday. Currently, Cantlay is part of a six-way tie for 10th place, sitting just two strokes behind a four-way tie for sixth.
This is the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and we know Cantlay gets serious this time of year, so expect him to continue climbing the leaderboard on Sunday and cash this top-10 ticket.