If you’re hunting for the best MLB picks and player props August 8, 2025, has to offer, you’re in the right place. This slate features Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in a prime matchup, the Padres taking on a shaky Walker Buehler, and Ketel Marte set up nicely against Colorado. Let’s break down my favorite MLB bets for Friday night.
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MLB Picks and Player Props August 8, 2025
Padres Team Total Over 2.5 F5 vs. Red Sox
The Padres face a familiar opponent tonight as Walker Buehler returns to Petco Park—this time wearing a Red Sox uniform. Buehler’s 2025 campaign has been rocky, posting a 5.74 ERA, a 5.55 xERA, and a 5.89 FIP. His strikeout rate has dipped, walks have increased, and he’s struggled to keep the ball in the park. Unsurprisingly, Buehler hasn’t gone deep into games, pitching more than five innings in just 7 of his 19 starts. With that in mind, I’m targeting the Padres team total for the first five innings.
Buehler distributes his pitches fairly evenly, but his four-seam fastball and cutter have been liabilities. Opponents have posted a .438 wOBA against his four-seam and a .496 wOBA against his cutter—both brutal. At this point, it’s puzzling why he still leans on these pitches. The Padres’ expected lineup has performed well against the four-seam, logging a .356 wOBA and .168 ISO. While the team isn’t as strong against the cutter overall, five hitters own a wOBA of at least .345 against it. This looks like another short outing for Buehler—and an opportunity for the Padres to cash this early team total.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases vs. Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw toes the rubber tonight for the Dodgers against the Blue Jays. While he’s still effective, his strikeout numbers are way down—reflected by a strikeout prop set at just 2.5 and a 5.7 K/9 rate on the season. That tells us he’s relying on contact, not punch-outs. This sets up well for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has mashed both the fastball and slider from lefties—pitches that make up 69% of Kershaw’s arsenal. Guerrero Jr. boasts a .525 wOBA and a .310 ISO against left-handed fastballs, making him a strong candidate to clear 1.5 total bases tonight.
Ketel Marte 3+ H/R/RBI vs. Rockies
Even with the Diamondbacks trading away a couple of big bats, they’re still producing against left-handed pitching. Ketel Marte is a prime example. He owns a .328 wOBA and .196 ISO against southpaws this season. That lines up well against Rockies starter Austin Gomber, who’s been dreadful. Gomber leans heavily on his four-seam fastball—which opposing hitters are destroying for a .570 wOBA and .484 ISO. Those are massive numbers for a pitcher’s primary offering. With Marte hitting leadoff, he has multiple paths to hit this H/R/RBI combo tonight.
Good luck with your MLB picks and player props for August 8, 2025!
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