On Friday, every team in Major League Baseball takes the diamond across a loaded slate. With plentiful options on the board, we’re taking a look at the top home run prop bets on tonight’s slate.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — these are long-shot bets by nature. Even the best home-run hitters are more likely to not hit a home run in any single game, meaning home run props aren’t “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, these still remain volatile plays.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are three home run props for Friday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Yainer Diaz to record 1+ home runs (+500)
The Astros head to the East Coast for a matchup with the Bronx Bombers tonight at Yankee Stadium. The matchup looks great against Cam Schlittler, a rookie who’s started just four games at the MLB level since making his debut back on July 9. The right-hander allowed five homers in his first four games with a 2.29 HR/9 (albeit on a small sample) and his average exit velocity of 91 mph grades out quite low, as does his barrel percentage.
Those are factors the Houston lineup can take advantage of tonight. While the Astros don’t have a true superstar power bat like, say, a Kyle Schwarber, there are still a couple of solid picks like Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz tonight. The latter started the season quite slow but has largely turned his play around since July 1 with a .287 average. While his 16 homers aren’t eye-popping, he grades in the 78th percentile of expected slugging and ranks 70th percentile in launch angle sweet spot percentage and squares up to the ball well. With a spray chart that shows he spreads his hits around and the infamous short-porch in right field, Diaz looks like a great option with +500 odds.
Manny Machado to record 1+ home runs (+370)
This Padres superstar has been on a tear ever since the All-Star Game, batting .338 with a .945 OPS in that span. Manny Machado only hit three homers in 19 appearances over that sample, but he’s slugging .545 and feels due for a long ball in tonight’s matchup at Petco Park. With 20 on the season and 10 against both lefties and righties, the veteran can bring the power on any given night.
The matchup he sees gives plenty of reason to believe he’ll knock a pitch into the bleachers. San Diego face off against the Red Sox and Walker Buehler, who boasts a 5.74 ERA and 19 homers across 19 games for a 1.82 HR/9. Buehler’s underlying metrics grade out with a lot of blue on his graphs, quite the contrary to Machado’s savant page filled with red bars in the 80th percentile or better in a ton of stats. He ranks 92nd percentile in expected slugging, 94th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 93rd percentile in average exit velocity at 93 mph. Machado also brings great bat speed with plenty of barrels, so there’s a lot to like as he faces a pitcher in poor form.
