The 2024 Carolina Panthers finished the season with 547 pass attempts, the 19th-most in the league. The number one overall pick from the 2023 NFL draft, Bryce Young, started 12 games while Andy Dalton got the nod for five.
Young began the season as the starter and, in the first two games, averaged 28 pass attempts per game, completed 55.4% and threw three interceptions without a touchdown. Then he was benched for five games. In the final 10 games of the season, Young averaged 31.9 pass attempts, completed 61.8% and threw 15 touchdowns with six interceptions.
There is now optimism heading into the year three of the Bryce Young era in Carolina.
Panthers target share overview
The leadership up top remains intact, with Dave Canales the captain of the ship with Brad Idzik as offensive coordinator and Ejiro Evero orchestrating the defense.
Whether that’s a good or bad thing is up for debate, but at least there is continuity.
Let’s start with the defense.
Last season, Carolina allowed a whopping 31.4 points per game, the most by a wide margin. The Dallas Cowboys gave up the second-most points per game with 27.5. Opponents rushed for a league-most 5.2 yards per attempt and the 7.6 passing yards per attempt were tied for the third-most.
The unit allowed the seventh-highest completion percentage, the most passing touchdowns (35), the second-most rushing touchdowns (24), racked up the third-fewest sacks (32) and the sixth-fewest takeaways (17).
Now, injuries were a huge reason for the ineptitude, so good health will make the defense better by default. In addition, significant draft capital was utilized on the defensive side of the ball and free agency likely brought in some new starters.
The defense should be improved, but that would take it from the worst to bad.
The offensive line was one of the worst heading into last season. It is now ranked 11th heading into the upcoming campaign, per PFF. Chuba Hubbard was great last season, rushing 250 times for 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns.
If the defense is improved and the Panthers can run the ball, that would likely lower the passing rate for Carolina next season. The efficiency could increase, though. Last season, Carolina was ninth in passing rate at 58.71%.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Carolina this season.
Wide receivers
Last season, Xavier Legette led the team with 84 targets and a 17% target share. Three other receivers garnered at least 50 targets – Adam Thielen (62), Diontae Johnson (58) and David Moore (57) – while Jalen Coker had 46.
Johnson is now in Cleveland and will be replaced by the eighth overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft, Tetairoa McMillan, who garnered a 30.9% target share in college. It’s unlikely he sees that high of a number during his rookie season, but he should supplant Legette’s 17% target share from last season and be the alpha from the group. I think there’s a good chance McMillan sees over 100 targets next season, barring health, and commands a target share in the mid-to-high 20s.
Tight ends
Ja’Tavion Sanders had 43 targets and a 9% target share last season. Tommy Tremble finished with 32 targets and an 8.3% target share.
Tremble underwent back surgery and should return in a month. That’s not good.
Sanders is 6′ 4″, 245 pounds and runs a 4.69 40-yard dash. He was drafted in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft. He’s very athletic and many have deemed him a sleeper heading into the upcoming season. I have doubts that he commands a heavy target share, though.
Running backs
Chuba Hubbard garnered 54 targets and an 11.7% target share last season. Miles Sanders had 30 targets and an 8.9% target share.
Sanders only played 11 games last season, but he is now in Dallas. Behind Hubbard, Rico Dowdle and rookie Trevor Etienne now sit on the depth chart.
With the Dallas Cowboys last season, Dowdle garnered 49 targets and an 8.4% target share.
Hubbard should dominate the passing game involvement on the depth chart, but Bryce Young had the fifth-lowest checkdown rate in the NFL at 8%.
