Break up the Marlins! Miami has won ten of its last 14 games, including a 6-4 win yesterday against the Astros. As things stand right now, the 56-57 Fish are slowly gaining ground in a crowded National League playoff race. Their opponent, the Braves, are suffering through a nightmare 47-66 season. Still, there’s plenty of talent remaining on Atlanta’s roster. Which of these two NL East rivals will earn a victory tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s matchup between the Marlins and Braves.
The Marlins are favorites (-131) over the Braves, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Marlins vs. Braves prediction, preview
Much like the rest of this Marlins roster, Eury Perez has flown under the radar. Despite missing time while recovering from Tommy John surgery, the right-hander has pitched like an ace recently. Since July 8th, he’s put up a 1.29 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over five starts. That includes a six-inning, two-hit shutout against the Yankees last weekend. Perez should have an easier assignment tonight against the Braves. This season, Atlanta has scored the eighth-fewest runs per game in baseball (4.14). In addition, the team will be without All-Stars Austin Riley (abdominal) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (calf).
Atlanta’s struggles on offense go far beyond one or two bats being injured. Several players on this star-studded lineup have failed to live up to expectations this season. Among those names, Ozzie Albies (78 wRC+) and Michael Harris II (72 wRC+) have stood out. The Braves have accounted for the league’s seventh-lowest slugging percentage (.390) and ninth-worst OPS (.711) vs. right-handed pitchers. It’s difficult to imagine an offensive breakout tonight against Miami’s young ace.
If there’s any shot at a win for the home team, it’ll take a strong start from Carlos Carrasco. The veteran, acquired last month from the Yankees, has been ineffective for most of 2025. Through 38.0 innings of work, he’s delivered a 5.68 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. On paper, this isn’t the most intimidating matchup. After all, the Marlins are only averaging the 19th-most runs per game in baseball (4.30). However, that number rises to 4.80 whenever the team is on the road, the league’s fifth-best mark.
Marlins vs. Braves pick, best bet
Best Bet: Marlins ML (-131)
What a difference a few months can make. Right now, Miami enters Thursday with all the momentum and a clear edge on the mound. Without Acuna Jr. or Riley, I’m struggling to see any kind of angle for the Braves. Consider backing the Marlins even at -1.5 (+129) in this one.
