Successfully betting the NFL is a difficult task, particularly when it comes to sides and totals. There are plenty of factors to monitor on a weekly basis, and it can be easy to second guess yourself. However, DK Network’s offering of our NFL betting splits from DraftKings Sportsbook can serve as a tool to help at times.
While betting splits are not the be-all or end-all for placing wagers, it can certainly help to see where the public is placing their money on NFL games. For those that are unfamiliar with betting splits, how they work, and how to read them, this article will serve as a guide to help you do just that.
For the purpose of this article, we are going to use games on the 2025 NFL Week 1 board. All of these spreads, totals and moneyline numbers, as well as betting split percentages are accurate as of August 4, 2025 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
How to identify a “sharp” play
When trying to identify where sharper or larger wagers are being placed, you are looking for a certain imbalance in the betting splits. While there are several of these games on the board for NFL Week 1 this season, I’m going to focus in on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Atlanta Falcons for our first example. The Falcons are +2.5 on the spread, which has not moved since open. While the Bucs have more than half of the tickets with 59% of the bets, those wagers account for only 22% of the handle — which means total dollars wagered.
That means that despite having less than half the bets on the Falcons (41%), Atlanta +2.5 has taken 78% of the money wagered on this spread. That means that smaller/public wagers are coming in on Tampa, but the larger bettors are placing their money on Atlanta.
The same can be said about the total for the same game. The total opened 47.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the ticket count is near even — 52% of bets on the over and 48% of bets on the under. However, 89% of the handle has come in on the over, and the total has bumped up to 48.5. That indicates sharper wager on the over.
A similar story can be told about the Carolina Panthers at the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Panthers opened up +3.5, and while the ticket count is near even (53% for CAR and 47% for JAX), Carolina has taken 87% of the money from spread bettors. That has pushed the spread to Panthers +3. Many bettors are bypassing the points and going to Carolina on the moneyline as well. While the Panthers have received less than a third of the bets on the as underdogs on the ML (31%), they account for 63% of the dollars wagered. So while 69% of bettors have wagered on Jacksonville to win the game, the much larger bets have come in on Carolina.
How to identify a “public” play
Out of the examples above, the Bucs and Jags would both qualify as public plays. They have a majority of the ticket count on the spread and moneyline, indicating that most smaller bettors like those sides. However, those wagers make up a much smaller amount of the handle.
Public plays can present themselves in other ways too, though. The Detroit Lions have been a public darling in recent seasons, and it does not appear that will change in 2025. Detroit opens the season playing at the Green Bay Packers, and the Lions +1.5 have taken 80% of the bets for 85% of the money. In this case, the handle matches the ticket count, meaning that the Green Bay side isn’t necessarily the “sharp” side of the game, but that Detroit is taking public money (eight out of 10 bets).
This could be something to monitor as games approach to see if the handle on Green Bay picks up. But if the game were to go off with 80% of the bets and 85% of the money on the Lions, the Packers would become the preferred outcome of the sportsbook. Some bettors like to rely on aligning themselves with the rooting interest of the house, and in this case, those bettors would jump in with a play on the Packers to “fade the public.”
Changes to the spread can change the splits
While the spread or total on a game may change, which will be reflected in the betting splits, the betting splits will still encompass all wagers placed since that market opened. What does this mean and why is it important? Well going back to Panthers vs. Jaguars, a lot of that handle on the Carolina side was placed when the Panthers were +3.5, but we can’t see exactly how much.
Now the game sits at Panthers +3, and if it were to drop to Panthers +2.5 (which some sportsbooks already have), it’s possible we’d see bettors that like Jacksonville start to lay the -2.5, and the splits would start to be closer to even. So theoretically, we might reach a point where Carolina +2.5 shows 75% of the money, but the bulk of that money came in at +3.5 and +3. While the splits would make Carolina +2.5 appear “sharp” in this scenario, the real money was coming in at a better number, and it might be smarter to lay off the game at that point.
It’s entirely possible that since the game moved to 2.5, more of the handle is on Jacksonville at that current market number. Just another example of how the splits can be helpful, but you also have to pay attention to the market and be careful — not just blindly place wagers off splits.
Another thing to keep in mind is if there is a key injury leading up to a game. A team might have 70% of the handle at +7 early in the week, but a key player is ruled out and the spread jumps to +8.5 with money coming in on the favorite. Keep in mind that the betting splits incorporate every wager since the game opened, so the story can change as news is released leading up to kickoff.
Monitor late steam
While the betting splits will take form all week leading up to a game, the most important information generally comes in the 90 or so minutes leading up to kickoff. Maybe you’ve already missed betting a key number earlier in the week, but the spread/total right before the game represents the most honest number of what the game should be priced at right before it’s played.
This is an important time to keep an eye on the splits. Maybe a game is right around balanced all week long (close to 50% of the tickets and handle on each side), but in the hour leading up to kickoff, you notice the splits change to one side having 60% of the tickets for 70% of the handle. That would indicate late steam coming in on that side, generally from sharper bettors.
Hopefully this was all helpful to newer users to betting splits. While they can be a great tool, I’d recommend only using them to help form your opinions, not make them for you. Keep track of the NFL betting splits on DKN all season right here!
