Things are looking up in Toronto.
The Blue Jays, 67-48, currently hold a three-game lead over first place in the AL East. That’s a far cry from the last-place Rockies, who own a dismal 30-83 record. As things stand, Colorado is on pace for one of the worst seasons in baseball history. Still, this is baseball; anything can happen on any given day. Will Toronto earn a road victory this afternoon at Coors Field? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Rockies.
The Blue Jays are favorites (-258) over the Rockies, with the over/under set at 11.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Blue Jays vs. Rockies prediction, preview
By Rockies standards, this is actually a pretty solid pitching matchup. For the home team, it’ll be Kyle Freeland on the bump. This season, the left-hander has notched a 5.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 74 strikeouts. Those numbers aren’t good by any means, but it’s enough to make the veteran Colorado’s de-facto ace. Still, the 32-year-old has shown he can keep things from getting out of hand. Over his last five starts, Freeland has recorded a 4.39 ERA. That includes decent outings against elite offenses such as the Astros and Red Sox.
This afternoon would be a challenge for any pitcher, let alone one taking the mound at Coors Field. The Blue Jays enter Wednesday’s contest ranking seventh in the league with 4.83 runs scored per game. Toronto’s offense is usually much worse on the road. That’s unlikely to be the case today at baseball’s most hitter-friendly ballpark. Not counting the injured George Springer (concussion), seven different Blue Jays regulars have a wRC+ of 110 or greater. Toronto also has the sport’s sixth-highest OPS against left-handed pitching (.750).
Kevin Gausman will take the hill for the visitors this afternoon. The veteran is a bit of a wildcard at this stage of his career. Granted, his season-long numbers are solid: 3.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 127 strikeouts. However, the right-hander has allowed at least four runs in six different outings. A blow-up start is always a risk at Coors Field, but it isn’t likely. The Rockies are averaging only 3.74 runs per game, the third-lowest mark in baseball. Over five career starts at Colorado, Gausman has posted a 3.95 ERA.
Blue Jays vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blue Jays over 3.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-110)
No sane human being should consider betting on the Rockies barring an extreme circumstance. This afternoon’s contest does not qualify. Still, the Blue Jays are such massive favorites that there isn’t much value. Instead, the most appealing play might be fading Freeland. Toronto, a team that hits lefties well, should churn out a handful of early runs on Wednesday.
