Prior to last night, 24 of the league’s 30 teams had scored 10 or more runs in a single game at least once since the All-Star break. Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers joined that crew with a 12-6 win over the St. Louis Cardinals, one of four teams yet to reach that milestone, with the San Diego Padres also reaching double-digits last night. The win tied the series at one apiece.
The rubber match will take place at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. Shohei Ohtani will take the mound for Los Angeles, while Matthew Liberatore will start for the Cardinals.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
As I alluded to in the introduction, both of these offenses has been fairly cold since the All-Star break. Across that span, the Dodgers have the league’s 12th-highest OPS, which is a disappointment given the immense talent on their roster, while St. Louis languishes in third-to-last. Neither team got much going in Monday’s series opener, as Sonny Gray and Tyler Glasnow enjoyed an old-fashioned pitchers’ duel, though new addition Brock Stewart was the one to take the loss after giving up a go-ahead single in the top of the ninth. The second game was far more encouraging for the World Series champs: Max Muncy, in his second game since being activated from the injured list, went deep twice, as did Teoscar Hernández. In the process, the Cardinals tied their fourth-best offensive performance of the second half.
Los Angeles’ chances of keeping St. Louis’ offense down will depend on Ohtani’s health. The 31-year-old gave Dodgers fans heart palpitations when he left the mound mid-batter last Wednesday after issuing six straight balls, but Los Angeles confirmed that he was merely cramping and he stayed in the game as a designated hitter. With his 53 pitches last Wednesday representing a season high, it’s doubtful that Dave Roberts will let him go above that number again, so let’s assume that it’ll be a three-inning outing for the two-way star tonight and that he’ll allow between zero and two runs. That’ll mean six innings for the Dodgers’ mediocre bullpen to finish the job.
Liberatore might put some stress on the Cardinals’ relievers, too, given that he hasn’t lasted past the fifth inning in any of his past four starts. Across that 16.2-inning stretch, he’s been poor, conceding 23 hits, 14 runs (10 earned), nine walks, and eight strikeouts, and if his command continues to be bad, that could pose a problem against a Los Angeles team that walks at among the league’s highest rates. Plus, Liberatore has conceded just a 19th-percentile average exit velocity, and it shouldn’t be a surprise that a roster featuring Ohtani, Muncy, Freddie Freeman, and Hernández hits the ball hard. St. Louis has a good bullpen if Liberatore struggles, but it had to use four relievers to pitch six innings yesterday after Miles Mikolas’ poor showing, so it’s already a bit taxed.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-109)
While the Dodgers continue to be frustratingly inconsistent, the Cardinals have been a lot worse overall in recent weeks. They picked up a win on Monday, but Gray is better than Liberatore and Ohtani is better than Glasnow.
Strong Lean: Runs – 1st Inning U0.5 (-105)
Despite by far the worst offensive season of his career, Mookie Betts is hitting second for Los Angeles once again. He had a good game yesterday but doesn’t deserve to be at the top of the lineup, especially with Ohtani slumping (by his standards) ahead of him. Ohtani has kept a scoreless first in four of his seven starts.
