With the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers separated by just three games atop the NL West and the Dodgers floundering in the Southern California summer heat instead of soaring like they usually do, the division could be in for its first true compelling title fight since 2021. San Diego, which is 8-2 in its last 10 games, will seek a series win against the rebuilding Arizona Diamondbacks, with the first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET.
Trade deadline acquisition Nestor Cortes will make his Padres debut, while the Diamondbacks will start Anthony DeSclafani.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The Padres will have to hope that Cortes acquaints himself with the team better than their other trade deadline acquisitions have. JP Sears started the series opener on Monday and conceded five runs in five innings, getting out-dueled by Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt, who had been shelled by the Detroit Tigers in his most recent start. Yesterday, the team’s other marquee acquisition, Mason Miller, conceded a two-run shot to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the eighth inning before Luis Arráez started a five-run 11th-inning rally, staving off a Diamondbacks offense devoid of contributions from anyone besides Gurriel. Overall, since the All-Star break, San Diego has had top-10 units on both sides of the ball, while Arizona has paired an average pitching staff with poor hitting.
Cortes has missed virtually the entire season with a left flexor strain. He was awful in his first start, conceding eight earned runs in two innings against the New York Yankees on March 29, but he bounced back five days later with six innings of one-hit ball before getting shut down with the injury. In his four-start, 18-inning rehab assignment, he’s been strong, giving up just three runs (two earned) while walking three and fanning 18. The Cuban was an above-average pitcher with New York in 2024, impressively boasting a top-septile walk rate. However, he’s consistently induced grounders at a bottom-decile rate, which could be a problem against a trio of the league’s premier pulled-fly hitters in Gurriel, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte.
The Padres should be salivating with DeSclafani on the rubber. The right-hander managed just 2.1 innings against the Athletics in his most recent start, conceding four runs on five hits, walking three and failing to strike out a batter. Although he’s had a couple of decent seasons, including a near-All-Star-caliber campaign for the San Francisco Giants in 2021, DeSclafani hasn’t put it together yet this season while recovering from flexor tendon surgery that cost him the entire 2024 campaign. Still, it’s not a bad matchup for him: he’s avoided giving up many hard hits and San Diego has made pretty soft contact all season.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+112)
Cortes is a better pitcher than his numbers from earlier this season indicate, and he’ll be backed up by one of the league’s best bullpens, which only got stronger at the deadline. Advanced statistics are kind to DeSclafani, but he’s still at best Cortes’ equal and his supporting cast is worse.
Strong Lean: Nester Cortes U14.5 Outs Recorded (+140)
Though no Padres starter has lasted more than five innings since Nick Pivetta last Friday, Cortes has been limited to 60 pitches per game throughout his rehab assignment. If San Diego’s goal is to have him healthy and ramped up by the postseason, it can’t afford to risk his arm now.
