On Wednesday night, Major League Baseball has a handful of contests on the schedule, providing 10 teams of options to consider for home run props to power through the middle of the week. After looking at the matchups, environments, odds, and current form of the players on the board this Wednesday night, my favorite home run props are from.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets by nature. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, making home run props never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, these picks still remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re very uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, which boosts the ceiling of your betting card even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Monday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Brent Rooker to record 1+ home runs (+270)
The Athletics are in D.C. and have been showcasing their young power potential since the All-Star break, with Nick Kurtz (+240) and Shea Langeliers (+270) both producing monster multi-homer games. Rooker has gotten a little lost in the shuffle, but still brings great home run potential on Wednesday night in a favorable matchup against Cade Cavalli.
Cavalli will be making his first MLB start since August 2022 after complications after his Tommy John surgery. He has been very hittable in the minors with a 9.00 ERA in his last six starts in Triple-A, and righties like Rooker hit .329 against him with four home runs in his minor league splits this season. Cavalli did get plenty of strikeouts in his rehab, but still allowed plenty of hard contact.
Rooker had a pair of doubles while going 4-for-6 on Tuesday, and he has three home runs and a .322 wOBA since the All-Star break. He’s also had three barrels in his last six games and an average exit velocity just below 90 miles per hour.
Most of Rooker’s home runs this season have come on the road and against righties, so he’s on the strong side of those splits as he looks to keep the Athletics’ power surge rolling in D.C.
Julio Rodriguez to record 1+ home runs (+360)
I highlighted Rodriguez as one of my top MLB DFS plays of the slate, and I’m also picking him with one of my top home run props of the night. Rodriguez comes with favorable odds, even though he has been picking up his homer pace since the start of July.
He homered on Sunday against the Rays to give him 20 taters on the year, nine of which have come in his last 21 games.
Rodriguez has hit .295 over those 21 games, with a .352 ISO and .416 wOBA. Those numbers are backed by a 50.8% hard-hit rate and a 15.9% barrel rate. Over that span, he has also had an average exit velocity of 93.4 miles per hour, which would rank in the top 10 in the majors this season if he could sustain that level of success.
On Wednesday night, he’ll be at home against Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox. Cannon has allowed 16 homers in 18 games this season, including 10 on the road. While lefties have done most of the damage against him with a .377 wOBA, I’m still taking the righty Rodriguez to take him yard on Wednesday, since his odds are so favorable compared to the M’s lefty options.
Manny Machado to record 1+ home runs (+400)
In the other late game on Wednesday night, Machado and the Padres take on Anthony DeSclafani and the Diamondbacks. Machado comes in absolutely crushing the ball, and DeSclanfani has been especially crushable by righties this season.
Machado has a 70% hard-hit rate over his last 20 games with an average exit velocity of 96.3 miles per hour, which would be second on the season behind only Oneil Cruz if it was for the season.
He has hit .350 over those 20 games with seven doubles, a .410 wOBA, and a .200 ISO. Like Rodriguez, he’s also on 20 homers for the season and made some history with his 20th homer of the year last week.
I like Machado’s home run props to get to 21 homers on Wednesday, since he’ll be in a good matchup against DeSclafani. In his 25 2/3 innings this season, the righty has given up six homers, including five to righty hitters like Machado. Three of those homers were in his 11 1/3 innings at home, where opponents have a .362 wOBA against him.
Machado has been hitting the ball so well lately that with a little more launch angle, he should be able to connect on a blast to help the Padres earn a series win in Phoenix on Wednesday.
