Over the past decade, the Astros, whether you love or hate them, have been one of baseball’s top franchises. The opposite is true of the Marlins, perennial losers for most of the last ten years. With that being said, the tide might be turning in South Beach. Miami has won 13 of its last 20 games, flirting with .500 at 55-57. Can the Fish earn a victory tonight over a World Series-caliber Houston squad? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s matchup between the Astros and the Marlins.
The Marlins are favorites (-119) over the Astros, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Astros vs. Marlins prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, the Marlins might be the hottest team in the National League. Dreams of postseason play remain far-fetched, but this group will be a pain for several contenders going forward. That hasn’t been the case over the past two days against the Astros, however. Houston has earned two straight wins at Loan Depot Park, including Tuesday’s 7-3 victory.
Despite a disappointing effort this week, Miami has a decent chance at ending this series on a high note. This evening, it’ll be Janson Junk on the bump for the Marlins. It’s been a breakout campaign for the 29-year-old, having tossed a career-high 65.1 innings. During that time, the right-hander has notched a 3.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 48 strikeouts. In eight of the veteran’s 13 appearances this season, he’s surrendered two runs or less. Since July 23rd, the Astros have averaged the league’s fifth-fewest runs per game (3.69).
For the visitors, Spencer Arrighetti will toe the slab. After entering 2025 with some preseason hype, the right-hander was sidelined with a thumb injury after just two starts. Now, making his first appearance since April, the Astros will likely monitor the second-year pro’s workload. Unlike in years past, a date with Miami isn’t a complete walk in the park. Still, the Marlins are only averaging 4.29 runs per game, 20th-most in baseball.
It’s easy to see why Houston’s coaching staff is high on Arrighetti. The 25-year-old posted a stellar 10.6 K/9 ratio last season. However, he also accounted for 4.0 walks per nine innings. A severe lack of command is troubling, especially for a hurler coming off of the 60-day IL. If Miami’s hitters are patient, there could be several free passes handed out tonight.
Astros vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Marlins ML (-119)
This isn’t exactly a battle between two aces. Still, both starters are capable of a stellar performance. Today, I’d rather back the more experienced, contact-oriented Junk than an erratic fireballer such as Arrighetti. Factor in a struggling Astros offense, and I’ll take the Marlins as modest favorites on Wednesday.
