The 2024 Minnesota Vikings finished the season with 548 pass attempts, the 18th-most in the league. J. J. McCarthy was selected to be the quarterback of the future after the Vikings used the 10th overall pick on him. Sam Darnold was signed to a one-year deal and was ahead of McCarthy on the depth chart during the preseason. Unfortunately, McCarthy tore the meniscus in his right knee, quelling any competition or controversy. Darnold then led the Vikings to a 14-3 record while passing for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Kevin O’Connell has to be regarded as one of the greatest coaches of all time for squeezing that season out of Darnold.
Darnold is now in Seattle while McCarthy is healthy and primed to show that he is indeed the future of the franchise.
Vikings target share overview
The coaching staff remains in place, with O’Connell the captain of the ship with Wes Phillips as offensive coordinator and Brian Flores guiding the defense.
The defense finished tied for the fourth-most sacks last season and allowed the fifth-fewest points per game. Over the offseason, the unit got bolstered by adding Jonathan Allen to the defensive line.
On offense, Aaron Jones was given a two-year extension while Jordan Mason was brought in to be the Thunder to Jones’ Lightning. More importantly, the offensive line was addressed. Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill are excellent tackles, but the interior has been a weakness. Center Ryan Kelly was added, guard Will Fries will return from injury and Donovan Jackson was selected in the first round of the NFL draft. PFF has the Vikings ranked as the seventh-best unit heading into the 2025 season.
With a formidable defense and an improved offensive line, a more ground-and-pound philosophy will likely be employed while McCarthy gets fully acclimated to the NFL game, which could mean fewer pass attempts than last season.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Minnesota this season.
Wide receivers
Justin Jefferson is the Alpha and Omega of the Vikings passing game. He garnered 153 targets and a 29.9% target share last season. He should be around 30% once again this season, although the overall targets could tick down.
Jordan Addison received 99 targets despite playing 15 games. The target share was 21.4%.
Jalen Nailor had 43 targets and an 8.4% target share. Minnesota utilized 12 personnel at the seventh-highest rate last season, so Nailor won’t be on the field all the time.
Tight ends
T. J. Hockenson returned from injury and played 10 games, receiving 62 targets and an 18.4% target share. In 2023, a healthy Hockenson had a 24.3% target share. As long as he’s healthy, I think he gets back up into the 20% range.
Josh Oliver had 28 targets and a 6.2% target share last season while Johnny Mundt received 27 targets and a 5.3% target share. Mundt is no longer on the team while Oliver signed a three-year, $23.25 million contract extension with the Vikings. Oliver is athletic and he should see the field plenty, as two tight end sets should be plentiful and Minnesota gave Oliver a lot of money.
Running backs
Aaron Jones received 62 targets and a 12.1% target share last season. Cam Akers was the only other running back with double-digit targets, and he finished with 10. Akers is no longer on the team.
Ty Chandler appeared in all 17 games last season, but he managed only six targets.
Jordan Mason is the new backup to Jones. In three NFL seasons and 45 games, Mason has a total of 18 targets. He’s there for the tough yards inside and goalline work. Mason likely won’t be used much in the passing game.
