The Orioles’ struggles continued in the second half despite winning five straight at the end of July.
They’re further below .500 now than they were before the All-Star break. They play the final game of the series against the Phillies on Wednesday after losing the first two.
The Phillies, however, have extended their NL East lead to 2.5 games over the second place Mets. They’re on a three-game win streak and have won four of their past five.
Philadelphia is a -157 moneyline favorite, and Baltimore is +128 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under eight runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Phillies vs. Orioles matchup.
Phillies vs. Orioles prediction
After a 13-3 onslaught on Monday, the Phillies shut out the Orioles 5-0 to win the series. The third game will determine whether they move on with the sweep.
Ranger Suarez will be on the mound for Philadelphia amid perhaps his best season yet. He has a 2.68 ERA through 100.2 innings pitched. It’s his lowest ERA since he split his time in the bullpen and rotation in 2021.
The Tigers scored three runs on him in his last outing, but the Orioles are not nearly as potent offensively. Baltimore will have a difficult time against Suarez, especially coming off a shutout on Tuesday.
Trevor Rogers will start for the Orioles as he looks to continue his excellent season. He has a 1.44 ERA through 56.1 innings, which is a small sample size, but it’s vastly better than his other seasons. Rogers’ only other season below a 3.00 ERA was in 2021 when he held a 2.64 with the Marlins.
What’s additionally promising is that Rogers’ FIP is at 2.61. It’s certainly not as good as 1.44, but few people would expect that to be the case. A 2.61 FIP is still solid even if it is larger than his ERA.
Rogers, however, will meet a strong Phillies offense. Even if Philadelphia can’t break Rogers, it’s likely it will get through eventually once the bullpen takes over. The Orioles’ bullpen has a 4.81 ERA, ranking 25th in the majors.
Phillies vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Rogers has been impressive, but the Phillies are just too good. At some point, their offense will break down Baltimore’s pitching, whether it’s against Rogers or the bullpen.
Just like the first two games of the series, Philadelphia should win by multiple runs. The run line is set at -1.5 (+130). That’s good value for a lopsided matchup.