Tuesdays mean 15-game MLB slates, and 15-game slates mean 30 starting pitchers to choose from, with prop bets available on all of them. Pitchers ranging in pedigree from Garrett Crochet to Anthony Molina will start today, as some teams are caught in the throes of a postseason push while others evaluate young prospects.
Here are my three favorite starting pitcher prop bets for tonight’s games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Garrett Crochet O7.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Although the Kansas City Royals are the ball-in-play kings of baseball, striking out at the league’s second-lowest rate and walking at its lowest, Crochet is inevitable. The 26-year-old ranks second in the American League in strikeouts, recording eight or more in 13 of his 22 starts overall and eight of his last 11. Plus, since he hasn’t pitched since July 26 after the Boston Red Sox opted to manage his load by pushing his start back, he should be able to reach at least 100 pitches, which will allow him to get through more batters and record more strikeouts. Crochet’s 84th-percentile chase rate is a relative weakness compared to his overall quality, and the Royals chase at the league’s third-highest clip.
Luis Severino U2.5 Runs Allowed (-105)
It was widely assumed that the rebuilding Athletics would deal Severino during a trade deadline in which they shipped away starter JP Sears and closer Mason Miller to the San Diego Padres. But the 31-year-old Dominican still plays in West Sacramento, and he’s in pretty good form, having conceded two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts, good for a 2.49 ERA and 2.51 FIP across that span. He has some of the most extreme home-road splits in baseball, with a 3.03 ERA away from Sutter Health Park.
Thankfully for Severino, tonight’s game against the Washington Nationals will take place in the national capital, where balls have traveled one foot shorter than average. Washington has also had a fairly cold offense as of late, with the fifth-lowest OPS since the All-Star break, the eighth-lowest overall, and the ninth-lowest in home games, and it got worse offensively at the deadline by dealing away utility outfielders Amed Rosario and Alex Call. Young sensation James Wood has slashed just .119/.221/.179 since July 4.
José Berríos to Record a Win (+105)
The AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays made quite the statement last night at Coors Field, hammering the Colorado Rockies’ Tanner Gordon for seven runs in 2.2 innings in a 15-1 victory, with Eric Lauer picking up his seventh win of the season. In the win, the Blue Jays amassed 25 hits, tied for the most a team has recorded in a single game this season. It’s hard to imagine the Rockies doing worse today, but the path to a victory is far more straightforward for Toronto than Colorado regardless.
The Rockies’ starter, Molina, has made just 40 appearances in his MLB career, including one start, and has amassed a 6.85 ERA. To be fair, the 23-year-old has been solid since being demoted to Triple-A Albuquerque at the end of June, giving up just six total earned runs in the four starts (17.2 innings) that he’s made for the Isotopes since then, so maybe he can translate some of that success back to the MLB level, but the chasm between the Triple-A and MLB levels is huge. I have far more faith in Berríos, who’s recorded three wins, a no-decision, and a loss in his last five starts and had a winning record in eight of his 10 MLB seasons.
