Two clubs headed in opposite directions are set to meet tonight in Motown. The Tigers, despite a rocky month of July, still lead the American League Central. Their division rivals, the Twins, opted to trade away several impact pieces last week, ushering in a rebuild. Still, Minnesota does have a few intriguing names still on its roster. Can the underdogs pull off a victory in Detroit? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s matchup between the Twins and Tigers.
The Tigers are favorites (-148) over the Twins, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Twins vs. Tigers prediction, preview
Despite these teams having far different goals for the second half, there’s some hype around tonight’s contest. That’s due to the return of Chris Paddack, acquired last month by the Tigers. The veteran had spent four seasons with the Twins before they decided to trade him. During his first start with Detroit, the righty tossed six innings of one-run ball against the Diamondbacks. However, his season-long statistics aren’t the most impressive (4.77 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). For what it’s worth, Paddack’s FIP (4.26) and xERA (4.52) suggest he’s gotten a bit unlucky.
It’s not as if the 29-year-old has the most difficult task ahead of him tonight. Bats such as Carlos Correa, Willi Castro and Harrison Bader have been traded. Byron Buxton (rib) is currently on the injured list. That leaves the Twins with just four lineup regulars that have a wRC+ of 100 or greater. Only one player projected to play tonight for Minnesota (Matt Wallner) has an OPS above .800. Paddack has a solid 4.34 ERA when pitching at Target Field this season. During those matchups, he’s accounted for a minuscule 0.76 HR/9 ratio.
Minnesota’s chances of earning a victory might come down to Tuesday’s starter, Zebby Matthews. The 25-year-old’s potential is undeniable; look no further than his 10.8 K/9 ratio over 71.0 career innings. Unfortunately, he’s also recorded a 6.21 ERA and 1.54 WHIP during that time. This Tigers offense, after a cold streak to start July, has begun to bounce back. Over the past two weeks, Detroit ranks eighth in baseball with 64 total runs scored. Matthews has struggled away from Minneapolis, posting a 6.63 ERA.
Twins vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers -1.5 (+114)
Neither Matthews or Paddack are pitchers to trust. Still, I’d rather back the latter of the two given his track record of success at the major league level. An erratic arm with a depleted lineup offering run support? It won’t be a shock if the Tigers blow this one open.
