The 2024 Green Bay Packers finished the season with 479 pass attempts, the third-fewest in the league. Green Bay went old school, signing Josh Jacobs and giving him 301 carries, which he turned into 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns. The defense was very good, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game. The coaching staff remains the same. There have been changes to the offensive line.
Packers target share overview
The Packers had a top-10 offensive line last season. PFF has the unit rated as the 14th-best heading into this season.
Right tackle is set, as Zach Tom just received a four-year, $88 million extension. The rest of the line has question marks. Left tackle could be Jordan Morgan, last year’s first round pick who suffered a shoulder injury, or Rasheed Walker. Aaron Banks was signed in free agency and will likely be the left guard while Elgton Jenkins moves to center. Sean Rhyan, who was in a rotation at right guard last season, will likely man that position this season.
PFF has Banks rated as the 33rd-best guard. Rhyan is ranked 67th out of 136 guards.
If Green Bay can’t run the ball, that could increase the passing attempts. That said, bad offensive line play could also mean worse protection, so that could squash those gains. I don’t think the offensive line changes will have a profound effect on the offense in general, but it is a variable that could cause consternation.
The Packers did select a wide receiver in the first round of the draft for the first time in forever, and Matthew Golden’s 4.29 40 speed should take the top off of defenses. But the basic philosophy of the Packers passing offense shouldn’t change – spread the wealth. No player received over 76 targets last year, but four had at least 70.
The Packers defense should be one of the better units once again, which should facilitate ground-and-pound, but defenses can be fickle year-to-year.
Now, let’s take a a look at how the targets should be distributed in Green Bay this season.
Wide receivers
Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs all received at least 70 targets last season. Wicks led the crew with 76 and garnered a 16.4% target rate. He was often hyped as being Davante Adams-esque, but the 17% drop rate last season squashed that. Reed had a 16.2% target share while Doubs clocked in at 19.7%.
Golden will likely replace Wicks in the starting lineup alongside Reed and Doubs. I doubt Golden gets 16% of the targets, so I think Reed sees an uptick, especially since he has the seventh-highest Explosive Rating per Player Profiler.
Tight ends
Two seasons ago, Luke Musgrave received 46 targets while Tucker Kraft got 40. Both tight ends were rookies but Musgrave only played 11 games due to injury.
Last season, Musgrave only played seven games due to injury while Kraft played in every contest. Kraft garnered 70 targets for 50 receptions, 707 yards and seven touchdowns. That was good for a 15.1% target share.
Green Bay utilized 12 personnel 10.32% of the time, the 10th-most. And that was with Musgrave playing only seven games. Musgrave had a 12.7% target share two seasons ago while Kraft was at 7.1%. I’d expect both to be around 10% this season, barring health.
Running backs
Josh Jacobs led the group with 43 of the 71 targets to running backs, good for a 9.3% target share. As long as Jacobs is healthy, he should dominate the rushes and targets in the passing game from this group.
