Does the drought end this year? Is Mike Vrabel the final piece of the puzzle? Will Drake Maye prove he can be the Patriots‘ next elite quarterback?
Those are just the surface-level questions surrounding New England. While the answers can only come with time, we are able to provide answers as to how DraftKings Sportsbook bettors view the Patriots going into the 2025 regular season.
Patriots Win Total
Much wasn’t expected of the Patriots going into last season, which resulted in their win total being set at 4.5 (a number that they went under).
A new head coach, the addition of Stefon Diggs and a year’s experience under Maye’s belt — now the Patriots have a win total of 8.5. While this is the most popular win total on DraftKings Sportsbook, in terms of handle, sharps don’t think New England can get over this mark.
On 49% of the bets, the under on this play has seen 58% of the handle. And yet, the Patriots (+135) have seen the fourth-most handle of any team in the To Make the Playoffs market.
For those looking for a pro-Patriots team bet: New England winning over 2.5 divisional games has seen 99% of the handle placed on this market, as well as 95% of the bets.
Drake Maye Futures Splits
Maye has three season-long player props available on DraftKings Sportsbook: Regular Season Passing Yards, Regular Season Passing TDs and Regular Season Rushing Yards. Here’s how the betting splits for each of those categories break down:
- Maye’s Regular Season Passing Yards prop is set at 3250.5. The over has seen 97% of the handle on 70% of the bets.
- His Regular Season Passing TDs prop is set at 19.5. The over has seen 99% of the handle on 97% of the bets.
- His Regular Season Rushing Yards prop is set at 475.5. The over has seen 96% of the handle on 99% of the bets.
One of these is not like the other. Sure, the passing touchdowns prop has fine splits toward the over, and the over is still betable on Maye’s rushing yards prop, but that 97/70 combination that the passing yards option has is the most appealing of the bunch. A public play, but a crystal-clear sharp lean.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
Diggs, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson all have season-long player prop options on DraftKings Sportsbook. There are a couple visible leans — one above all else:
- Stevenson’s Regular Season Rushing Yards prop is set at 625.5. The under has seen 82% of the handle on 53% of the bets.
- Henderson’s Regular Season Rushing Yards prop is set at 700.5. The over has seen 81% of the handle on 88% of the bets.
- Diggs’ Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 725.5. The over has seen 85% of the handle on 93% of the bets.
- Diggs’ Regular Season Receiving TDs prop is set at 4.5. The over has seen 89% of the handle on 90% of the bets.
The only play of these four that has betting splits that don’t fully shift attention away from the over is Diggs’ receiving touchdowns prop. Given last season was the first time he’s gone under this number since his sophomore campaign — and that he had three TDs in just eight games last season — this is still a compelling over play.
The most interesting split of the bunch are unquestionably Stevenson’s. With Henderson entering the backfield and Maye able to run — and the offense expected to be more diverse — you can see how this number comes in so low for Stevenson.
Awards Markets
Diggs, Henderson and Christian Gonzalez each is a candidate in an Awards market:
- Diggs opened with +2800 in the Comeback Player of the Year market. His odds have since shifted to +2500, all while seeing three percent of the handle on four percent of the bets.
- Henderson opened and remains +2000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Thus far, he’s seen four percent of the handle on three percent of the bets.
- Gonzalez has seen the greatest odds shift of this trio, even though he’s only seen two percent of the handle and bets in the Defensive Player of the Year Market. After opening at +7500 to win the award, his odds now sit at +5000.
No real lean from this group. If you’re looking to play one of them, Gonzalez’s odds movement makes him the most intriguing of the bunch.
Of course, the most interesting Awards market for Patriots bettors is Coach of the Year. Vrabel opened at +850 and is now the favorite at +600 after 16% of the handle has gone his way on 15% of the bets.
This event is no longer active.
-Betting Trends from 2024 to Consider
While the data above will help you with season-long plays, the following stats produced by Maye, Diggs, Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper in 2024 are instead applicable to gameday player props.
- Drake Maye
- Passing Yards: 7-4 to the over
- Stefon Diggs (with Houston)
- Receiving Yards: 5-3 to the over
- Hunter Henry
- Receiving Yards: 9-7 to the over
- Austin Hooper
- Receiving Yards: 11-6 to the over
- Receptions: 12-5 to the over
- NOTE: Hooper went over his closing line in each of his final eight games last season.
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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