The Phillies (64-48) are currently atop the NL East, with the Mets hot on their trail. They’ll hope to earn a series win tonight against the last-place Orioles (51-62). However, Baltimore isn’t your typical cellar-dwelling squad. The O’s still have plenty of young talent; is that enough to earn an upset win on the road? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s matchup between the Orioles and Phillies.
The Phillies are favorites (-143) over the Orioles, with the over/under set at ten runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Orioles vs. Phillies prediction, preview
This is definitely not a marquee pitching matchup. Regardless, it’s not as if either arm tonight is a scrub. For the Phillies, it’ll be Taijuan Walker making his 13th start of the season. It’s been a solid campaign for the veteran so far. Over 73.0 innings of work, he’s notched a 3.82 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 56 strikeouts. However, the former All-Star’s numbers are a bit deceiving. A 5.22 FIP and 4.38 xERA suggests that Walker has gotten quite lucky thus far. In addition, his 1.7 HR/9 ratio is one of the worst marks for any pitcher in the majors.
Walker’s propensity for giving up dingers could prove to be a factor tonight. The Orioles, for all their inconsistency at the plate, have hit the tenth-most homers in baseball (139). In addition, Baltimore has scored the most runs in the league over the past two weeks (85). Several standouts during that time have included Gunnar Henderson (.959 OPS), Jordan Westburg (.857), and Tyler O’Neill (1.353). In fact, only one team has hit more homers than the O’s since July 22nd: the Phillies.
Philadelphia has jumped towards the top of the National League thanks primarily to a loaded pitching staff. However, this lineup remains one of the Senior Circuit’s best. This season, the Fightins are averaging 4.72 runs per game, ninth-best in baseball. When playing at home, that mark has jumped up to 5.20. Tonight, the Phillies will get to face Baltimore hurler Dean Kremer. The right-hander is a far better pitcher at home (2.89) than he is on the road (5.37). That’s bad news against such a dangerous offense. Over their past ten games, Kyle Schwarber (1.307 OPS), Brandon Marsh (1.234) and Bryce Harper (.928) have mashed at the plate.
Orioles vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 5.5 total runs scored 1st five innings (-110)
As significant favorites, there isn’t a ton of value on the Phillies. However, Kremer’s road struggles make it difficult to consider taking the Orioles. Instead, the best move on the board is the first five innings over. Neither starter in this one has been particularly good, and both of these lineups are red-hot. Expect a slugfest in Philly on Tuesday.
