NFL player props are becoming an increasingly popular way that sports bettors are wagering during football season. Much like the feeling of putting together a winning fantasy lineup, correctly projecting a player prop (whether it be an over or under) on a game comes with a reassuring confidence, on top of your winnings.
The player prop menu at a shop like DraftKings Sportsbook is extensive, including a strong offering of season-long player props. Betting a player prop for an entire 17-game season can be a bit more overwhelming that one specific game that you’re breaking down a matchup on, but it can also lead to plays with an even larger edge if you trust you handicap. If you’re higher/lower than the general perception on a player and are correct, you’ll see it play out to a much larger extent over the entire season than an individual game.
Let’s do a quick breakdown of what to look for when betting a season-long player prop, along with some examples that I’ve already wagered on for the 2025 NFL season.
Don’t Just Take the Over
The public generally gravitates towards overs, which carry even more risk for season-long props. We’ve all experienced the feeling of betting a player to go over their prop in a game and they get injured and the bet is a loser. Welp, when you play a season-long prop, the player now has the entire season to suffer and injury, and depending on how much time they miss, potentially cost you a winner.
So if you’re going to play an over on a season-long player prop, I’d generally make sure you feel you have a couple games of cushion to exceed the number. Injuries are something we can’t project, but we can use a player’s injury history to help make better decisions. If you’re looking to play a running back over his yardage prop and wondering why it appears so low for a 17-game season, but he’s only managed to play 20 total games over the last two seasons, there’s your reason. Odds makers are factoring in that injury history.
For example, DraftKings Sportsbook has Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards set at O/U 950.5. If you decide you want to wager on this prop, you’re more betting on CMC’s health than how well he plays. Approaching age 30, CMC has eight NFL seasons under his belt. He’s stayed healthy for five of them, and excluding his rookie season, went well over 1,000 rushing yards in his other four healthy seasons. In his other three seasons, he’s played seven or fewer games, and didn’t even get halfway to 950 rushing yards. That includes last season when McCaffrey played in just four games. Recent injury history is being heavily factored into this number.
Try to Factor in Injuries
On the flip side, let’s look at a player like Josh Allen. DraftKings Sportsbook has Allen’s passing yards set at O/U 3750.5. Allen missed four games with an elbow injury during his rookie season in 2018, and has since been healthy enough to play in every game. The only risk has been sitting/being benched during the final game of the season if it’s a meaningless outcome game for Buffalo. If you’re betting an under on Allen, you have less of an injury risk than a player like McCaffrey. You’re betting more on a true under, which carries a bit more risk since the player has proven he can stay healthy over the majority of his career.
Again, we can’t project injuries. One wrong step in the NFL can be costly. But we can use injury history to help make better decisions.
Dak Prescott is an example of a player that has some injury history, and has directly determined the outcome of his season-long props. DraftKings Sportsbook has Prescott priced at 3850.5 passing yards this season, and I played the over. I’d recommend checking out the article for the full breakdown, but in short, Prescott essentially would need to get hurt and miss three or more games not to exceed this number. That’s a risk I’m willing to take.
Consider Team-Wide Changes
A much different example of an over I played comes with Drake London. The Falcons’ receiver had a breakout season in 2024, but I think the edge in this handicap is a quarterback change that isn’t being correctly priced into the market. You can ready more about why I’m high on London in my article for DK Network right here.
It’s important to target unders too. If you feel there’s a player carrying a high injury risk at this stage of their career, a player that carries suspension risk, or a guy that could just get flat out benched, those are all great unders to target. Those situations don’t always present themselves, though. And when they do, you usually need to be quickly before the market adjusts.
Matthew Golden is a rookie so we don’t have a done of data to go on, but I feel his role with the Packers is being projected as too large. Green Bay has really spread the ball around, so to set Golden’s receiving yardage prop as higher than Jayden Reed and the highest on the team is a mistake in my mind. Read more about why I bet Golden to go under his prop on DK Network.
Fading Big Numbers
The final strategy on betting unders is simply going against an inflated number on a player coming off a monster season. Saquon Barkley is probably the best example this season, as DraftKings Sportsbook has his rushing yards set at 1450.5. Even sitting out the regular season finale to play in 16 games, Barkley rushed for over 2,000 yards last season. That would make this an easy over, but the number actually opened 1500.5 on DKSB. The under has been one of the most popular season-long player props, hence why the number has shifted down 50 yards.
There’s no singular statistic or theory that you can use to handicap season-long player props. But by using a good balance of different pieces of information that you feel factor into that specific player’s outcome, you can build yourself a pretty solid season-long player prop portfolio. Good luck this season!
