Despite seeming to be contenders early in the summer, a terrible stretch right before the trade deadline incentivized the San Francisco Giants to be moderate sellers, dealing Camilo Doval to the New York Yankees and Mike Yastrzemski to the Kansas City Royals last Thursday. Heading into this week’s three-game road series against the Pittsburgh Pirates — an opponent they just got swept by last week — the Giants are 56-56, six games behind the final NL Wild Card spot.
The series will begin with with a 6:40 p.m. first pitch tonight in Pittsburgh. Johan Oviedo will crest the hill for the home side, while San Francisco will start Justin Verlander.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, preview
The Pirates have had some pitching highlights since the All-Star break to go along with a league-average offense. In that span, they’ve allowed one or fewer runs five different times and have a 9-6 record in the second half overall, although their overall numbers are skewed by a 17-16 defeat in Colorado on Friday night. Meanwhile, the Giants’ staff, which has been elite all season, imploded to the tune of a 4.91 ERA in the first 15 games after the All-Star break, and though the offense has been an above-average unit overall, it has continued to perform poorly with runners in scoring position.
Oviedo, a Cuban who Pittsburgh acquired at the 2022 trade deadline, hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the following offseason. However, he’s been stellar in a six-game minor league rehab assignment, with a 2.13 ERA across five starts at the Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels. During the 2023 season, he paired a 96-MPH fastball with a slider that was among baseball’s best pitches, demonstrating potential that outshined his 4.31 ERA. Given that he hasn’t yet thrown more than 63 pitches or five innings in a rehab start, I’d expect him to be limited to four or five innings tonight, butting further strain on a bullpen that tossed 13.2 innings in the last series against the Colorado Rockies.
While Oviedo is literally back, Verlander might be figuratively back. The 42-year-old has been one of baseball’s worst starters this season, recording -0.3 WAR, but in his last two starts, he’s combined for 10 innings of seven-hit, one-run ball, walking six and striking out 10. He’s still fairly adept at limiting hard contact and inducing whiffs despite his below-average fastball velocity, so he should be capable of shutting down the Pirates like he did during the teams’ previous series. In that start, he generated 13 whiffs — his third-highest whiff rate of the season — and Pittsburgh actually got lucky to impart as much damage as it did.
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-126)
The Pirates’ bullpen is taxed after Andrew Heaney and Paul Skenes had among their worst and shortest starts of the season at high altitude, and especially after dealing David Bednar, I’m not sure that it has enough depth to hold off a San Francisco offense that found some juice in the Big Apple.
Strong Lean: Justin Verlander 5+ Strikeouts (-120)
Verlander has reached this number in three of his last five starts and five of his last eight, and since he’s on five days’ rest, he might be able to crank his pitch count closer to 100. As is, Pittsburgh already strikes out at the league’s fifth-highest rate, and it just traded Ke’Bryan Hayes, one of its less strikeout-prone players.
