Monday’s MLB slate opens with a handful of games in the 6:40 p.m. window, one of which sees the Philadelphia Phillies (63-48) battle the Baltimore Orioles (51-61). The home-team Phils just took two of three games against a top contenders and should have the upper hand in this series against one of the Trade Deadline’s sellers, but anything can happen in this league.
Here’s a look at game one of this series with a Phillies vs. Orioles prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Orioles prediction, preview
After suffering a series loss to the lowly Chicago White Sox last week, the Phillies bounced back nicely over the weekend with a pair of wins over the AL-best Detroit Tigers. Now 8-7 since the All-Star Game, Philadelphia faces a much easier opponent this evening against the Orioles. Baltimore traded away significant contributors last week as they punted on the season in favor of the future, and while they’re 8-9 since the season resumed, the O’s lost two of three contests following the Trade Deadline.
While the Orioles rank eighth in average and sixth in OPS since the All-Star break, those numbers should drop rapidly without Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano around. The team scored eight runs in three games since the Deadline, so the sample’s small, but they’re likely outmanned today against a contending Phillies squad that falls eighth in scoring since the ASG with 5.2 runs per game. While they’re batting just .242, Philadelphia’s .767 OPS ranks eighth as well and they’ve based the second-most homers over that same span with 27 moonshots.
Lefty Jesus Luzardo (4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 140 SO) starts for the Phillies today inside the top-20 pitchers in terms of strikeout numbers. He faces a fellow southpaw in the Orioles’ Cade Povich (5.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 68 SO), who makes his first appearance since June 15.
Phillies vs. Orioles pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as strong -207 Moneyline favorites in today’s contest. The Orioles are +167 to upset the NL East leaders with the run total set at nine.
Neither of these starters really limit runs, and I’m not very confident in Povich especially as he makes his first start in over a month against a hard-hitting offense. Beyond the traditional stat sheet, his underlying metrics are very blue via his savant profile, so that’s not a great sign either. With a 91.9 average exit velocity that ranks in the bottom 3% of pitchers and a second-percentile barrel percentage, the Phillies’ power bats may have a field day.
As established earlier, Philadelphia ranks second in homers since the All-Star Game and Kyle Schwarber could basically win this game on his own with 38 dingers on the year. It feels like a blowout lies on the horizon, so I’m targeting Phillies -1.5 to open this series.
Best bet: PHI Phillies -1.5 (-102)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
