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Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals prediction, pick for Monday 8/4/25

Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals prediction, pick for Monday 8/4/25

Sports Betting Picks MLB DraftKings Network

Updated:

By: Dan Johnson

Is there a peskier team than the Royals? They’ve taken two-of-three from the Cubs, the Guardians, the Braves, and the Blue Jays in their last four series. Counterquestion—is there a hotter team than the Red Sox? Maybe the Marlins, but, honestly, I’m not sure the Sox would be upset about conceding that. The Marlins did just undo the Yankees. In any case! Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Red Sox and the Royals.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Red Sox vs. Royals prediction, preview

Boston enters this series red-hot. The Red Sox (62-51) have won seven of their last eight games. They even swept Houston over the weekend by scores of 2-1, 7-3, and 6-1. The Royals (56-56) are playing well too, winning four of their last five and taking two of three in Toronto (capped by a 7-4 extra-innings win). Both clubs send out in-form starters: Boston’s Brayan Bello (7-5, 3.19 ERA) has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts. Kansas City’s Bailey Falter (7-5, 3.73 ERA) has yielded just one earned run in each of his last two outings.

With two hot teams but quality starters on the mound, this matchup sets up for a lower-scoring game. The last five Royals–Red Sox games at Fenway Park have all stayed under the total, and Boston’s pitching has been excellent at home (3.70 team ERA). In fact, the Red Sox’s most recent win was 6-1 behind 8 superb innings from newcomer Lucas Giolito, showing Fenway can produce pitchers’ duels. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s offense can be hit-or-miss. The Royals managed just six hits in Sunday’s win despite the seven-run output.

Royals vs. Red Sox pick, best bet

KC’s lineup has power (Salvador Perez with 20 HR, 66 RBI) but is up against a solid Boston staff. Notably, the Royals have lost 16 of their last 17 Monday games against winning AL East teams, reflecting offensive struggles in tough matchups. With Bello and Falter dealing and a total near nine runs, a shootout seems unlikely.

Best bet: Red Sox vs. Royals u9.5 total runs (-120)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!

Dan Johnson
Dan Johnson has been an editor, writer, and analyst for DraftKings and DraftKings Network since 2024. He’s previously held editorial posts at The Paris Review, Macmillan Publishers, Bedford/St. Martin’s Press, ASSIGNMENT Magazine, and FantasySixPack. You can find his various editorial work & writing (sports-related and non-) at all of the above.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.