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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres prediction, pick for Monday 8/4/25

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres prediction, pick for Monday 8/4/25

Sports Betting Picks MLB DraftKings Network

Published:

By: Dan Johnson

In a divisional rivalry series, one of the biggest sellers at the trade deadline meets one of the most reliable, marquee buyers. Odds thus tilt one predictable way, but we’re sniffing out a live dog tonight. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Diamondbacks and the Padres.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction, preview

The Padres (62-50) are road favorites in Arizona, but the Diamondbacks (53-59) have upset potential at home. Arizona is 4-3 in seven meetings with San Diego this season and won the most recent series between them at Chase Field, two games to one. San Diego has been hot (7-1 over its last eight games), but now goes on the road where it is just 26-31 this year. The Padres hand the ball to newly acquired lefty JP Sears (7-9, 4.95 ERA), who will be making his first start for the club. Arizona counters with rookie Brandon Pfaadt (10-7, 5.11 ERA), a talented right-hander who has had ups and downs but thrives at Chase Field with a 2.68 ERA at home.

This sets up as a live underdog spot for the D-backs. Pfaadt’s home success and Arizona’s slugging offense (fourth in MLB with a .435 slugging percentage) give them a real shot to win. Sears, by contrast, might need time to adjust in his new uniform.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet

Arizona has won five of its last six games as an underdog against San Diego. This reflects that the D-backs match up well with the Padres. They’ve also tended to start fast. Arizona has led after three innings in each of its last five games against winning teams, which could put early pressure on San Diego. At roughly +110 odds, the value is on the home side. Back the underdog Diamondbacks to pull off the win.

Best bet: Diamondbacks (+110) vs. Padres

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!

Dan Johnson
Dan Johnson has been an editor, writer, and analyst for DraftKings and DraftKings Network since 2024. He’s previously held editorial posts at The Paris Review, Macmillan Publishers, Bedford/St. Martin’s Press, ASSIGNMENT Magazine, and FantasySixPack. You can find his various editorial work & writing (sports-related and non-) at all of the above.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.