Sunday afternoon is jam-packed with MLB action, with fun contests spread throughout the day. In the late afternoon, four games start around 4:00 p.m. ET before the series finale between the Phillies and Tigers closes out the day on Sunday Night Baseball. Throughout the day, several strong home run props deserve consideration. After looking at the matchups, environments and current form of the players on the board in the later afternoon matchups, my top home run props are from Brent Rooker, Colson Montgomery, and Bryce Harper.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with this afternoon’s home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets by nature. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, making home run props never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, they still remain uncertain plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re very volatile. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, which boosts the ceiling of your betting card even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Saturday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Brent Rooker to record 1+ home runs (+260)
Rooker and the Athletics are finishing out a three-game home series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The two teams split the first two games of the series, and on Sunday, rookie Jack Perkins gets the call against vetaran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is 3-7 with a 5.63 ERA, 4.65 FIP and 18 home runs allowed in 18 starts. in his last four outings, he has been even more hittable, with a 7.40 ERA, 6.92 FIP and seven homers allowed. Since he is a southpaw, righty hitters have had most of the success against him this year with 14 of the 18 homers and a .410 wOBA.
Rooker is the Athletics’ top righty power bat, and he has taken advantage of the homer-happy environment at Sutter Health Park this season. The 30-year-old is batting .271 on the year with 23 home runs, and six of those homers have come since July 1 in his last 26 games.
During those 26 games, he hit .260 with a .346 wOBA while posting a 13.7% barrel rate and 42.5% hard-hit rate. He has seven hard-hit batted ball events in his five games on this homestand and has hit .294 with 10 of his 23 homers at home. He’s also hitting .301 on the year against lefties with a .413 wOBA. Rooker has hit 22% of his homers against lefties in 25% of his plate appearances.
He homered twice against the Mariners earlier this week, including this smash on Wednesday.
Colson Montgomery to record 1+ home runs (+475)
The White Sox called up Montgomery on July 4, and he splashed into their lineup with a memorable weekend in Colorado. Since joining the team, he has kept on rolling, and his power production has spiked over the last few weeks as he’s adjusted his approach to the majors.
Montgomery hit 18 homers last season in Triple-A and 11 in his 55 games before his promotion. His power has been even more impressive over the last 10 games. He has six homers in his last 10 contests with an impressive 58.1% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 94.2 miles per hour over that span.
Montgomery has a good matchup on Sunday afternoon in Anaheim against Jack Kochanowicz. Kochanowicz has given up 16 homers on the year while going 3-9 with a 5.75 ERA and a 46.3% hard-hit rate against him.
Lefties like Montgomery have hit 13 of the 16 homers against Kochanowicz this season, and they have a .500 slugging percentage and .377 wOBA. Righties haven’t homered against Kochanowicz in Anaheim this year, but lefties have hit five homers against him at home this year.
Montgomery is quickly developing into one of the better young hitters in the game, and his recent power surge makes him a great option as a value play in today’s home run props.
Bryce Harper to record 1+ home runs (+300)
In the Sunday Night Baseball matchup, the Phillies and Tigers will meet in the rubber game of their three-game series. New Tiger Charlie Morton will get the start against the Phillies, and that sets up Bryce Harper as a solid play in the home run props for Sunday night.
Harper hit home run No. 16 on Saturday and has been cooking coming out of the All-Star break.
In his 14 games since the break, Harper is 17-for-55 (.309) with six doubles, six homers and a 50% hard-hit rate to go with an impressive 19% barrel rate.
Harper is 12-for-29 (.414) in his career against Morton with a home run, seven RBIs and 11 walks. He’ll hope to continue that momentum against Morton, who is 7-8 with a 5.42 ERA and 4.85 FIP in his 23 games this season. He got off to a brutal start with the Orioles, but he bounced back and has been much better lately. He has still given up five homers in his last three outings, and he has allowed 16 homers in 101 1/3 innings on the year.
Righties like Harper are hitting .288 with a .348 wOBA against him on the season, and with how hot he has been since the break, Harper is one of the top home run props on the board this Sunday.
