August is here, which means postseason races across baseball are heating up. Nowhere is this more evident than the AL West, where the Rangers and Mariners are battling for a wildcard spot. Seattle has reeled off two straight wins this weekend. However, prized midseason acquisition Merrill Kelly will be making his first start with Texas. Which of these two rivals will come out on top tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s matchup between the Rangers and Mariners.
The Mariners are favorites (-132) over the Rangers, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Mariners vs. Rangers prediction, preview
Starting pitching has carried the Mariners in both of their victories this weekend. They’ll hope it continues tonight with Luis Castillo toeing the slab. The former All-Star is no longer an ace, but he remains a terrific arm. Over 22 outings, the righty has notched a 3.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 111 strikeouts. Through seven career starts vs. the Rangers, Castillo owns a stellar 3.26 ERA. The Dominican hurler has surrendered three runs or less in each of his last six outings.
On paper, this doesn’t appear to be the toughest matchup for Castillo. After all, the Rangers are only averaging 4.10 runs per game, the eighth-lowest mark in baseball. However, since June 1st Texas ranks sixth in the league with 259 total runs scored. Leading the way has been Corey Seager, currently hitting .266 with 15 homers and 38 RBIs. When the shortstop plays, the Rangers own a 44-33 record this season. The downside? He’s hitting .200 over 20 career at-bats vs. Castillo.
On the other side, it’ll be Merrill Kelly on the bump for Texas. Perhaps the best arm dealt this week, the righty now forms a lethal trio with pitchers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. It’s easy to see why the Rangers fell in love with the veteran. Through 128.2 innings of work, he’s recorded a 3.22 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 121 strikeouts.
Kelly will have quite the challenge on his hands tonight keeping this Mariners offense at bay. Seattle already had the league’s 12th-highest scoring offense. Recent acquisitions of Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor have only made the M’s more formidable at the plate. When Kelly last faced Seattle, on June 9th with Arizona, he tossed six scoreless innings.
Mariners vs. Rangers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rangers ML (+104)
Although the Mariners earned their last two wins, they also had a decisive edge on the mound. That’s not the case tonight with Kelly making his debut. Factor in a better rested Rangers bullpen, and I’ll take the underdogs at even money.
