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Prediction, pick for Mateusz Rebecki vs. Chris Duncan

Prediction, pick for Mateusz Rebecki vs. Chris Duncan

Sports Betting Picks UFC DraftKings Network

Published:

By: Ryan Wohl

The co-main event of this week’s UFC Fight Night is a three-round lightweight bout between Mateusz Rebecki and Chris Duncan. HyunSung Park is taking on Tatsuro Taira in the Main Event of this card in a 125-pound contest.

Here is my best bet for Rebecki vs. Duncan at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.

Mateusz Rebecki to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+120)

Rebecki and Duncan share multiple similarities. They are both 32 years old, and each has a 4-1 record in the UFC. Duncan is the taller fighter with the more significant reach advantage, but Rebecki is more efficient. Rebecki averages more significant strikes (4.70 vs. 4.20) at a better rate (48% vs. 45%).

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Rebecki is a -218 favorite as Duncan is +180. Rebecki has won 17 of his previous 18 contests, with 16 of them coming via knockout or submission. He is coming off a split decision win against Myktybek Orolbai at UFC 308 in October 2024.

Although Duncan lands 0.26 more takedowns per 15 minutes, Rebecki is 32 percent more accurate on his attempts. With Duncan only having a 37 percent takedown defense, it should allow Rebecki to get the best of him on the mat.

Ryan Wohl

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.