Two exciting lightweights, Elves Brener and Esteban Ribovics, will face each other on the Main Card of tonight’s UFC Fight Night. Both fighters are coming off a loss and need a victory to work themselves back up the 155-pound division.
Here is my best bet for Brener vs. Ribovics at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.
Esteban Ribovics to Win by Decision (+165)
Both fighters are 5’10” and although Brener has a three-inch larger reach (72″ vs. 69″), Ribovics’ striking is on a different level. Ribovics averages 8.08 significant strikes per minute, which is the second most in the UFC. He lands over double the amount of Brener. Ribovics is a -270 favorite on the moneyline, but the better play is to get him to win another way.
Ribovics lost his previous fight via split decision to Nasrat Haqparast. But Ribovics lands more significant strikes in that bout, making it a very close decision. Brener averages more takedowns, but Ribovics should be able to stop his attempts with his elite takedown defense (63%).
Although 12 of Ribovics’ 14 wins have been by finish, two of his previous three victories have come via decision. Also, four of his last five contests ended via the judges’ scorecards. With Brener only suffering one loss by knockout in his career, the best play here is to get Ribovics to win by decision.
