Saturday’s MLB schedule is built around the Speedway Classic at 7:15 p.m. EST. Four games start in the early afternoon, seven around 4:00 p.m., and three games begin the late wave at 10:00 p.m.. Throughout the schedule on Saturday, some strong home run props are worth considering. After looking at the matchups, environments, and current form of the players on the board, my top home run props for the day are from Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman and Shea Langeliers.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with today’s home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets by nature. Even the best homer hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, making home run props never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, they still remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re very uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also like to play home run props at a small unit size in round robins, which boosts their ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Saturday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jose Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+340)
Ramirez and the Guardians are facing the trade-deadline-depleted Twins in Cleveland this weekend, and on Saturday, he’ll face Bailey Ober in one of the juiciest matchups on the board.
Ober has allowed 21 homers in his 17 starts this year for Minnesota, including 14 homers in his last five games. In those five games, he has allowed 30 runs on 38 hits in 30 innings. Opponents have a 16.5% barrel rate and 45.6% hard-hit rate in those games.
Ramirez is hitting .300 with eight homers in his last 24 games dating back to July 4. He has a 33.7% hard-hit rate and 7.2% barrel rate over that span. He also has a .421 wOBA, 11 stolen bases and a 174 wRC+ during that stretch.
Ramirez is 7-for-24 (.292) in his career against Ober with a home run and a pair of doubles. He has hit 11 of his 21 homers at home and has a .345 batting average and .391 wOBA against righties like Ober.
In his last nine games, Ramirez hasn’t homered. He seems overdue coming into this matchup, especially at favorable odds of +340.
Alex Bregman to record 1+ home runs (+330)
At Fenway Park, the Red Sox take on the Astros in the second game of their three-game set. Bregman went 2-for-4 in the first game against his former team on Friday night, and he’s 16-for-52 (.308) in his 14 games since returning from the injured list.
He has three homers in those games with a 44.7% hard-hit rate.
On Saturday, Bregman has a favorable matchup against lefty Colton Gordon. Bregman is hitting an impressive .367 in his 60 at-bats this season against lefties with a pair of homers and a .438 wOBA.
Gordon has a 4.74 ERA and 4.65 FIP and has given up 13 homers in 13 games. Righties like Bregman have 12 of those 13 homers with a .309 batting average and .379 wOBA against him this season.
Saturday sets up as a great spot for Bregman against his former team, and his home run props offer solid value at +330.
Shea Langeliers to record 1+ home runs (+295)
I had Langeliers in my home run props for Friday, and I’m going back to the well again on Saturday night since he has been so productive lately and is in another great spot.
Langeliers has hit five homers in his last six games and seven homers since the All-Star break. He’s 22-for-55 (.400) in his 14 games since the break with a .537 wOBA, a 39.1% hard-hit rate and a 10.9% barrel rate.
On Friday, he put the A’s up early with this blast:
Langeliers is in a great spot at homer-friendly Sutter Health Park, which has been the location of the third-most homers in the majors this year. On Saturday, he’ll face Zac Gallen, who has given up 23 homers in 22 games this year. Of the 23 homers allowed, righties have hit 14 of those long balls and 12 have come on the road.
The splits are in favor of “Bangeliers” going yard again on Saturday night, and his recent form has been outstanding. Since Gallen has been one of the most mashable probable pitchers on the board this Saturday, righties like Langeliers are in an especially good spot in a great environment at Sutter Health Park.
