The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros have upped the drama after the trade deadline. Friday’s game, an extra innings win for the Sox, was filled with the emotion of Alex Bregman facing new-old Astros shortstop Carlos Correa. Saturday’s win by Boston brought a different kind of drama.
What do these two teams have in store for us on Sunday morning? Everyone knows a good sequel raises the stakes, and the third part of the trilogy needs to raise them further.
The Astros are -115 favorites on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at eight runs. Let’s dig into an Astros-Red Sox prediction and pick.
Astros vs. Red Sox prediction, pick
Saturday’s pitching matchup was uninspired, to say the least. Sunday’s matinee provides a much more compelling showdown on the mound.
Consistently one of the best pitchers in the American League, the Astros will ask Framber Valdez to be the stopper. His 2.62 ERA this season would be the best full-season mark of his eight-year career. Fueled by his sinker-curveball combo, Valdez’s 61.9% ground ball rate is one of the best in baseball. Convenient timing, as he is due to hit free agency this offseason.
It’s been a long, strange road for Lucas Giolito to get here. A first-round pick and top prospect with the Nationals, Giolito was dealt to the White Sox for Adam Eaton in 2016. After being one of the worst starters in the bigs in his first full year, Giolito was top-11 in Cy Young voting from 2019-2021. He went back off the cliff in 2022, then was traded at the 2023 deadline to the Angels before being bizarrely waived a month later. Disaster struck after, as a torn UCL cost him his 2024 season.
With his value at an all-time low, Boston took a chance on Giolito to rebound. And rebound he did, pitching to a 3.80 ERA this year. The underlying numbers don’t love him due to hard contact, but he doesn’t issue many free passes and consistently works out of trouble. Significantly, Giolito has cut down on home runs allowed from his disastrous 2023 season. That’s going to come in handy against the Astros lineup that is reliant on the long ball.
Valdez gives the Astros an edge, but they’re hard to trust. The safest bet here is to take the under and hope for another low-scoring affair.
