Plenty of high-stakes baseball is set to take place this weekend. Pirates vs. Rockies is not one of those games. These two last-place squads had a busy trade season, dealing away several quality contributors. Now, the second half is all about figuring out which pieces are part of next season’s squads. Does Pittsburgh or Colorado have the edge going into tonight’s cellar-dweller showdown? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between the Pirates and Rockies.
The Pirates are favorites (-137) over the Rockies, with the over/under set at 12 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Pirates vs. Rockies prediction, preview
Several Pirates packed their bags this week, including Ke’Bryan Hayes, David Bednar, and Bailey Falter. One name that was surprisingly kept was Andrew Heaney, a veteran on an expiring contract. In theory, dealing the right-hander for any kind of prospect capital would have made sense. Regardless, what’s done is done. It’s been a mediocre season for the 34-year-old, who has posted a 4.79 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 78 strikeouts. Clearly, none of those numbers inspire much confidence going into a start at Coors Field. However, it’s worth noting that Heaney has a 3.20 ERA over four career outings in Colorado. In all of those games, he failed to surrender more than three earned runs.
It’s also not as if the lineup that plays at Coors is particularly good. The 28-80 Rockies are an absolute horror show, including at the plate. This season, Colorado is averaging a mediocre 4.27 runs per game at home, the 13th-worst mark in baseball. That number is sure to go down following last week’s Ryan McMahon trade to the Yankees. In fairness to the Rox, they have averaged 5.1 runs over their last ten home games.
The bigger issue for Colorado tonight will be on the mound. Antonio Senzatela has been arguably the worst starter in all of baseball this season. Through 102.1 innings of work, he’s accounted for a 6.68 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and 4.8 K/9 ratio. Words truly can’t express how disgusting it felt typing those numbers. Is there any upside here for the 30-year-old? Well, his 5.50 FIP, while still awful, suggests he’s been the victim of some bad luck. In addition, he’s facing a Pirates offense averaging the fewest runs per game in baseball (3.38). Since July 1st, no lineup has scored less than Pittsburgh (65). The next-closest team on the list are the Cardinals, who put up 15 more runs during that timespan.
Pirates vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Pirates vs. Rockies under 12 total runs (-118)
What happens when a stoppable force meets a moveable object? We’re about to find out. At this point, I don’t feel comfortable backing either of these atrocious teams. The savvier play might be to go under on tonight’s sky-high total. The biggest positive for either club in this matchup is Heaney’s stellar track record at Coors Field. Even if Senzatela gets hit hard, it’ll likely take both starters being awful to go over. That’s a risk I’d be willing to take on Friday.
