A busy trade deadline day saw the Yankees dramatically reshape their roster for the stretch run. The new-look Pinstripes will get their first test tonight when they travel to South Beach. It’s been a surprisingly competitive season for the Marlins, currently 52-55. Can Miami take down New York, the defending American League champions, tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between the Yankees and Marlins.
The Yankees are favorites (-176) over the Marlins, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Yankees vs. Marlins prediction, preview
What a Thursday for New York, who acquired three high-end relievers for the back of their bullpen. Those additions, coupled with some infield and outfield improvements, should be enough to help the Yankees down the stretch. If there was one complaint for general manager Brian Cashman, the team did not trade for a starter. Although another arm would have been nice, it might not be needed. After all, the Bombers have two aces at the top of their rotation. One of those two, Carlos Rodon, has put together his best season in Pinstripes. Through 130.0 innings of work, the lefty has notched a 3.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 147 strikeouts. Most impressive has been the All-Star’s ability to pitch deep into games, reaching the sixth inning in 13 of his 22 outings.
Rodon, a Miami native, will attempt to shut down his hometown club tonight. That’s not exactly a difficult task; the Marlins are averaging the 20th-most runs per game this season (4.23). When playing at pitcher-friendly Loan Depot Park, that number drops all the way to 3.66. All-Star Kyle Stowers has been terrific (160 wRC+), but just two other lineup regulars have a wRC+ of 100 or greater. Still, Miami managed to put together a stellar 15-10 record during the month of July. During that time, the Fish allowed the fewest runs in baseball to opponents (73).
Miami’s dominance on the mound is due to a number of different hurlers. Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera are the headliners, but don’t forget about Janson Junk. The 29-year-old journeyman is enjoying a breakout campaign in 2025 (3.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Junk’s newfound success will be put to the test against a high-scoring Yankees offense. Granted, this isn’t the same lineup without Aaron Judge, currently sidelined with a shoulder injury. Still, New York owns the league’s highest OPS against right-handed pitching (.781). In comparison, the Marlins possess baseball’s fifth-lowest OPS against left-handers (.644).
Yankees vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Yankees -0.5 1st five innings (-110)
The Yankees have a decisive edge in this matchup, but I don’t love their price tag. Still, there are other ways to find value with the Bombers. A lethal southpaw such as Rodon should keep this Marlins offense at bay. I’m not expecting Junk to get hit hard, but New York should be able to scratch out a few early runs. Back the Pinstripes to lead after the first five frames.
