All 30 teams in Major League Baseball are back in action on Friday, although many have new looks and additions after a very active MLB Trade Deadline. After a pair of afternoon games, 13 games are on the scoreboard for under the lights. If you’re looking to start August with a bang by picking some home run props today, there are plenty of strong options to consider. After looking at the matchups, environments, and current form of the players on the board, my top home run props are from Teoscar Hernandez, Andrew McCutchen, and Shea Langeliers.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with today’s home run props–all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, making home run props never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, they still remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re very uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also like to play home run props at a small unit size in round robins, which boosts their ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Friday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Teoscar Hernandez to record 1+ home runs (+330)
Hernandez and the Dodgers are rolling into Tampa Bay to face the Rays at homer-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field. The Rays have played the whole season in the Yankees’ spring training facility, and when the wind has been blowing out, the venue has been especially homer-happy.
Hernandez has 16 homers on the season, includign two in his last six games on the Dodgers current road trip, including this moon shot in Boston:
Hernandez has a 51.0% hard-hit rate in July and an average exit velocity over 90 miles per hour, which are both improvements on his season-long averages. He has a .267 average and .330 wOBA on the road, which are higher than his number at home as well.
While it doesn’t immediately look like an obvious smash spot against Shane Baz, it’s a more favorable matchup once you dive deeper into the numbers. Baz has a serviceable 8-7 record and 4.61 ERA, but in his 58 1/3 innings at home, he has given up 12 home runs and has a 6.33 ERA with a .349 wOBA against him. Righties have done most of the damage against him with 13 of the 19 homers he has surrendered along with a .347 wOBA and a .376 wOBA at Steinbrenner Field.
Baz is 0-4 in his last five starts with a 5.40 ERA and five homers allowed, so the Dodgers should be able to put some dingers on the board in Tampa. Hernandez is a strong option to consider for Friday’s home run props since he is on the strong side of the splits against Baz and brings good value over +300.
Andrew McCutchen to record 1+ home runs (+300)
The wind is forecast to be blowing out in Denver in the rarified air of Coors Field as the Pirates open their series against the Rockies. The elevation effect is one of the few things that could make a matchup between these offenses compelling since both the Pirates and the Rockies have struggled to score runs.
McCutchen has been a solid veteran presence for the Pirates, though, with 10 homers and a .244 batting average through his 95 games this season. He has already reached double-digit home runs for the 17th straight season in the majors.
McCutchen has two homers in his last six games and is regularly hitting second in the Pirates’ order. He will have a good matchup on Friday night as he looks to add an 11th long ball to his total this year.
He will face Antonio Senzatela, who has served up 18 homers in his 20 starts. Righties like McCutchen have 11 of those 18 homers and a .407 wOBA against him on the season. McCutchen has also had success against him in the past with two homers against him in their careers, while going 4-for-15 with two walks and three strikeouts.
The Pirates sold some pieces at the deadline, but McCutchen should continue to get regular playing time the rest of the way. The veteran is a solid value at +300 for his home run props as he visits Coors Field on Friday night.
Shea Langeliers to record 1+ home runs (+400)
Langeliers and the A’s are another team in a very homer-friendly environment this Friday night as they host the Diamondbacks at Sutter Health Park. While he hasn’t made the headlines of his slugging teammate Nick Kurtz, Langeliers has also been rolling lately and brings strong splits and good value on Friday night.
Langeliers has hit four homers in his last six games and six homers since the All-Star break. He’s 19-for-50 (.380) in his 13 games since the break with a .510 wOBA, a 39.0% hard-hit rate and a 12.2% barrel rate. He homered in three straight games against the Astros before “cooling off” to just one homer in his three-game set against the Mariners to start the week.
Langeliers has actually hit more of his homers on the road than at home this year, despite the fact that Sutter Health Park has been the location of the third-most homers in the majors this year.
He’ll get a good matchup on Friday, though, since he’ll take on Diamondbacks starter Anthony DeSclafani, who will be making his second start of the season. Desclafani has the highest HR/9 of all probable pitchers for Friday, giving up 1.93 HR/9. In his 23 1/3 innings, righties like Langeliers have hit .236 against him with four homers and a .341 wOBA.
Since he’s seeing the ball so well and in such a good spot, I think Langeliers brings great value at these home run props at +400 on Friday night in one of the two late games.
