It was a historic trade deadline for the Twins, who shipped out nearly half of their roster. In comparison, the 54-54 Guardians decided to stand pat, despite frequent Steven Kwan trade rumors. As things stand, both of these AL Central clubs are in a strange second-half spot. Which of these two rivals will kick off August with a win? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between the Twins and Guardians.
The Guardians are favorites (-126) over the Twins, with the over/under set at seven runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Twins vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Almost no Twins were safe from being traded. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Willi Castro, and Carlos Correa are just a few of the players Minnesota dealt over the past few days. One name that stood pat despite frequent rumors was Joe Ryan. The right-hander has enjoyed a career-best 2025 campaign, emerging as one of baseball’s top arms. Over 121.1 innings of work, the All-Star has notched a 2.82 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 137 strikeouts. Most impressive has been the 29-year-old’s consistency; he’s allowed one run or less in 12 of his 21 appearances this season.
The task at had for Ryan tonight isn’t particularly difficult. Cleveland is far from an offensive juggernaut, let alone one of the American League’s better lineups in 2024. This season, the Guardians are averaging the fifth-fewest runs per game in all of baseball (3.93). Outside of Jose Ramirez (141 wRC+), Kyle Manzardo (115 wRC+), and Kwan (113 wRC+), no batter on this squad has recorded a wRC+ of above 100. In nine career outings vs. Cleveland, Ryan has notched an ERA of 2.58. Worth noting: Kwan (.211 batting average) and Ramirez (.192) have both struggled in the past against the righty.
Gavin Williams will take the mound for the home team, making his 22nd start of the year. It’s been a solid season for the righty, owner of a 3.51 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 109 strikeouts. Over his last four starts, the 26-year-old has taken things to another level (2.25 ERA). There’s a good chance that continues tonight against the new-look Twins. Since the start of July, Minnesota has scored fewer runs than any other American League club (95). The absence of franchise cornerstone Byron Buxton (ribs) only makes this lineup worse. As things stand, there aren’t many impactful Twins hitters slated to take the field on Friday.
Twins vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Twins ML (+104)
Reading off that list of Minnesota hitters is uninspiring, but the same can be said for Cleveland. In theory, that makes the under appealing. The only issue is that seven runs is a tad too low for my comfort zone. When two lineups don’t move the needle, why not back the best pitcher? With respect to Williams, Ryan is a true ace that can dominate on any given night. At plus money, I’ll back the Twins.
