This is a tilt that features two teams at the opposite ends of the spectrum in the National League. In fact, while the Brewers own the NL’s best record and sit 20 games above .500 at 64-44, the Nationals are in possession of the league’s second-worst record, 20 games below .500 at 44-64. How’s that for coincidence?
While Milwaukee was one of the more quiet “contenders” at Thursday’s trade deadline, Washington wasn’t shy about its role as a seller. In fact, by 6:00 p.m. ET, the Nationals had almost traded away the team’s entire bullpen. That’s probably something to keep in mind as we begin to break down tonight’s festivities.
Let’s preview this matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Nationals prediction, preview
The term “unsung hero” gets thrown around a lot these days, but I do think it’s the perfect way to describe what Jose Quintana has meant to the Brewers this season. It’s easy to forget how bleak Milwaukee’s rotation was back in April, especially now that it’s populated by people like Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski and Quinn Priester; but let me remind you that things were very bad. The one constant? Quintana. The soft-tossing 36-year-old has been amazing for the Brewers when healthy in 2025, managing a 3.50 ERA across 82.1 innings of work. The underlying metrics aren’t exactly a fan of the veteran southpaw, as Quintana also sports a 4.77 xERA and a 4.78 FIP, yet this all looks eerily similar to the lefty’s stat line from 2024 with the Mets. That’s a campaign that we do, in fact, all remember.
Quibble with Quintana’s advanced numbers all you want, but when it comes to Friday night’s matchup with the Nationals, I think that the long-time White Sox is in a pretty good spot. Most of that feeling is simply due to handedness. Washington is one of the most left-handed lineups in MLB, with the likes of James Wood, CJ Abrams and Nathaniel Lowe populating the top of the batting order. As such, the Nationals have struggled with LHPs all season long, with the team batting .239 within the split with a modest .128 ISO and a 87 wRC+ — and that was with the services of Alex Call, who hit lefties well and was traded to the Dodgers yesterday afternoon. Maybe some serious regression is on the horizon for Quintana, but it won’t be manifesting itself this evening.
The other southpaw taking the mound tonight is Mitchell Parker. Let’s just say that 2025 hasn’t been as kind to Parker as it’s been to Quintana. Despite getting off to a decent start in early April, Parker comes into Friday’s action in possession of a putrid 6.31 ERA and 5.13 xFIP across his past 16 outings. For the season as a whole, Parker combines a fourth percentile strikeout rate (14.9%) with a fourth percentile opponent expected batting average (.295) and a third percentile opponent hard hit rate (49.9%). I guess this is all just a long-winded way of saying that Parker has been one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB over the past four months. The Brewers rank 10th in wRC+ versus LHPs. This isn’t going to go well for the Nationals and what’s left of their bullpen.
Brewers vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Andrew Vaughn 2+ Total Bases (-105)
Vaughn has always thrived against LHPs and, in his brief time with Milwaukee, he’s 9-for-19 (.474) within the split.
Strong Lean: Brewers -1.5 (+105)
Parker has been awful this season and the Nationals just traded away half their bullpen. This should be a blowout.
