The Los Angeles Sparks and Seattle Storm will close off a five-game WNBA slate of action taking place today.
This will be the second matchup between these two teams this season, with the Storm producing a 98-67 victory in the first game. It should be noted that Kelsey Plum missed this matchup, which changes the outlook quite a bit. Cameron Brink also made her return from last year’s season-ending ACL tear in the previous game, which provides another boost to this Los Angeles team.
Looking at tonight’s odds, the Storm enter as five-point favorites and -218 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sparks hold +180 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 169.5.
Sparks at Storm preview
The Los Angeles Sparks enter with an 11-15 record and sit in 10th place in the WNBA standings. However, they are 6-4 in their last 10 games played and have shown some encouraging flashes, including winning five of their last six. Los Angeles ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 84.6 points per contest, ranks third in field goal and three-point percentage, ranks fifth in offensive rating, and plays at the third-quickest pace in the league. The Sparks have had more trouble defensively, ranking 11th in opponents’ points per game by giving up 87.3 points per game. They also rank 11th in defensive rating, 12th in opponents’ points in the paint, 11th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and turn the ball over at the second-highest rate.
Kelsey Plum headlines the team’s production with 20.2 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.2 rebounds per contest. The Sparks also received a jolt from Cameron Brink’s return. Last year’s second overall pick added five points and three rebounds in just 14 minutes of action during her season debut. Expect Los Angeles to be patient in bringing her up to speed with her long-term future in mind, but the hope is for the 6-foot-4 forward to help solve some of their defensive issues. Dearica Hamby is in the midst of another stellar season, averaging 17.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. Rickea Jackson and Azura Stevens each also add over 13 points per game, with Stevens leading the team in rebounds at 8.6 per contest.
The Seattle Storm sit in fourth place in the WNBA standings with their 16-11 record on the year. They rank ninth in the league in scoring at 80.7 points per game, fifth in field goal and three-point percentage, ninth in offensive rating, and ninth in pace. Seattle has had more success on the defensive side of the ball. They are holding opponents to 77.6 points per game, the second-best rate in the league, rank second in defensive rating, sixth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and fifth in opponents’ three-point percentage. The Storm also tally the fewest turnovers per game while forcing the second-most turnovers in the WNBA.
Nneka Ogwumike headlines the scoring attack with 17.4 points per game along with her team-best 7.1 rebounds. Skylar Diggins is not far behind her, averaging 16.9 points, 5.8 assists, and 2.9 rebounds on the season while connecting on 39.2% of her three-point attempts. Gabby Williams adds 12.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, and Erica Wheeler is the lone other scorer in double figures with 10.9 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.2 rebounds. Wheeler also leads the team in three-point volume while connecting on 37.8% of her long-range attempts.
Sparks at Storm prediction, pick
The Sparks have been hot of late, while the Storm have produced some inconsistent play. Bringing Brink back into the mix allows this Los Angeles team to begin to function as designed, even while the minutes will be limited. While Seattle got the better of the Sparks in their first matchup, the picture will be much different with Kelsey Plum on the floor. Plum has been especially hot of late, scoring 20+ in three straight games entering this matchup, and will benefit from the attention Brink commands.
Los Angeles has also seen eight of their 11 wins come on the road, while the Storm has dropped four of its last eight games overall. This includes losses to the Connecticut Sun, twice to the Washington Mystics, and the Dallas Wings. Their metrics have not exactly matched their place in the standings all season, and things seem to be settling out. In contrast, the Sparks are taking some strides in their defensive impact and have looked like a much better team than their record has shown. These are two teams trending in opposite directions, and I am backing the momentum of Los Angeles to carry over.
In addition, I am backing the under of 169.5 and expecting this game to be more of a defensive battle. The total finished at 156 when these teams faced off for the first time this year, and Seattle has the best defensive rating in the WNBA since July 1st. The Storm also ranks ninth in pace and will be patient in their approach throughout. Los Angeles has leaned on more of a fast-paced attack this season, but Brink’s return should begin to slow this down while improving their defense in the process.
Best Bet: Sparks ML (+180) & Under 169.5 (-112)
When parlaying this pair of picks, the odds jump to +420 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Looking at the player prop market, I am also backing Kelsey Plum to record 20+ points at +110 odds on DraftKings. You can read my full write-up for player props across the WNBA slate tonight here, but this is my logic for Plum.
Plenty of attention has been paid to Cameron Brink making her return to play for the Los Angeles Sparks. Brink played 14 minutes in her first game back from last year’s season-ending ACL tear and finished with five points and three rebounds in her limited opportunities. But don’t let this fully distract you from Kelsey Plum continuing to be the offensive leader for Los Angeles. The four-time All-Star and two-time Champion is averaging 20.2 points per game on the season, along with 6.0 assists and 3.2 rebounds.
Seattle sits in fourth place in the WNBA standings with a 16-11 record, but has had some uneasy stretches of late. Plum missed the first matchup between these two teams, which resulted in a 98-67 Seattle victory. But expect things to be a bit different with the Los Angeles star on the floor.
The standard point prop for Plum is set at 18.5. While I like this number as well, I am backing the +110 odds of her cracking 20 points. Plum has reached this total in 15 of the 25 games she has played this season, including three straight and five of her past six games entering tonight. Look for her to benefit from the attention Brink commands and for last year’s second overall pick to make most of her impact on the defensive end for the time being. Count on Plum continuing to perform like the star that Los Angeles traded for, and for the attention that Brink commands to open things up even further.
