It feels a little odd to group both these teams together as a “buyer” at the trade deadline, but that’s exactly what happened. That said, one club’s postseason outlook remains quite a bit better than the other’s.
The Blue Jays salvaged a four-game series against the Orioles on Wednesday with a much-needed comeback victory to snap an extended losing streak. Despite that, Toronto enters the day 3.5 games up on the Yankees in the AL East and tied with the Tigers at 64-46 for the best record in the American League.
Conversely, while the Royals have won seven of their last 10 contests, the team sits a game below .500 and would have to hurdle several teams to get into the final Wild Card spot in the AL. I’ll never knock an organization for actually trying — maybe aside from the Angels — but Kansas City’s actions the past week were a little confusing.
Let’s preview this Friday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
I’ve wondered aloud about Kevin Gausman in these Blue Jays previews all season long, but it’s time to give the man some credit. While Gausman hasn’t had the most consistent campaign in 2025, he is coming off what is, without question, his best start of the year. Matched up versus Tarik Skubal in Detroit, Gausman tossed six scoreless innings against the Tigers, tying his season-high with 10 strikeouts. The outing lowered Gausman’s ERA to 3.82 and, dating back to June 26, the veteran RHP owns a 1.96 ERA with a 3.23 FIP and a 25.3% strikeout rate. For months I’ve been saying Gausman’s velocity and swinging strike rate have bounced back from a shaky 2024. We might finally be starting to see the surface results to back up those optimistic trends.
Speaking of consistency, let’s dive into Gausman’s opponent on Friday night: Michael Wacha. For the past four years, you’ve known exactly what you’re going to get from the RHP. To wit, Wacha’s posted an ERA below 3.60 every season since 2022, and while that’s always included an xERA above 4.00, the 34-year-old is about as perfect and a No. 4 starter gets. Still, Wacha’s best days are behind him. He’s getting older and that’s seemingly translated into a career-low 18.4% strikeout rate in 2025. Wacha’s also been far better taking the mound at the pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium, where his 2.63 ERA dwarfs his 4.53 ERA on the road. Heck, Wacha’s xFIP outside of Kansas City is an ugly 5.01. Basically, he hasn’t travelled well, which doesn’t necessarily bode well for a tilt where you’ll need to bring along your passport.
The Jays have really been swinging the bats well, too. In the month of July, Toronto led every club in MLB in batting average (.291), wOBA (.363) and wRC+ (133). The team’s lineup should also be getting a boost this evening from a pair of returning outfielders. George Springer has not played since Monday after taking a fastball off the helmet in a very scary moment. While not an All-Star, Springer has been the Jays’ best bat in 2025 according to wRC+ (147). Toronto is expected to welcome back Daulton Varsho, as well. The Gold Glove winner only has 100 plate appearances to his name this season due to a couple different IL stints, but in that brief span, Varsho has smashed eight home runs with 20 RBI and a .337 ISO.
Royals vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Michael Wacha 6+ Hits Allowed (+100)
The Jays lead the league in batting average (.265) and Wacha’s opponent expected batting average ranks in just the 33rd percentile.
Strong Lean: Royals Under 3.5 Runs (-120)
Kevin Gausman has been good in his last six starts and the Jays’ bullpen, with deadline reinforcements, is rested after an off-day on Thursday.
